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Caution Over Further Declines in the U.S. Dollar, Weakened by Concerns Over the Situation in Iran

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Caution Over Further Downside Potential for the U.S. Dollar, Which Has Weakened Amid Concerns Over the Situation in Iran

07.04.2026

Today's Highlights
  1. European Services PMI
  2. Canada-Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, despite Iran signaling its intention to end hostilities with both the U.S. and Israel, U.S. President Trump remained adamant that further attacks would follow if a ceasefire agreement could not be reached by the evening of the 7th, leading to a stalemate and causing the U.S. dollar to weaken alongside the Japanese yen.The AUD/USD pair rose from 0.6876 to 0.6938. It continued to trade just below the 75-day moving average on the daily chart.

Among European currencies, the euro rose against the yen. The euro/yen pair rose from 183.637 to 184.457. The 200-period EMA on the hourly chart acted as a support level, driving the price higher.The 4-hour chart shows a similar price movement to the hourly chart, and on the daily chart, prices are rising with support from the 20-day moving average (MA). Furthermore, on the weekly chart, the uptrend along the 20-day MA has remained intact since the beginning of the year.

Today’s economic indicators include the Japan Household Expenditure Survey at 8:30, the Japan Economic Sentiment Index (flash estimate) at 14:00, the Germany Non-Manufacturing PMI (final reading) at 16:55,5:00 PM: Eurozone Services PMI; 5:30 PM: UK Services PMI; 9:30 PM: US Durable Goods Orders (Preliminary); 11:00 PM: Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index; 1:35 AM: US Goolsbee:Chicago Fed President Goolsbee’s remarks at 26:00, U.S. 3-year Treasury auction at 28:00, U.S. consumer credit balances at 28:00, and U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson’s remarks at 6:50 the following day. We should remain vigilant regarding the downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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