Be on the lookout for sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed
06.04.2026
- Major markets are closed for Easter
- U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Economic Index
Last weekend, the U.S. dollar strengthened following the release of the U.S. March employment report on the 3rd, becoming the strongest currency alongside the Japanese yen. The AUD/USD pair fell from 0.6915 to 0.6881.It gradually declined as the upside was capped by the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, price action has been narrowing the range between the upper and lower bounds of the Bollinger Bands, from -2σ to +2σ, indicating that a triangular consolidation pattern is forming. On the daily chart, the pair is positioned just below the 75-period moving average (MA), awaiting a breakout in either direction.
Among European currencies, the euro fell against the yen. The euro/yen pair dropped from 184.266 to 183.541. On the hourly chart, it fell from the +2σ to the -3σ levels of the Bollinger Bands.On the 4-hour chart, the price has moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it, and the candlestick found support just below the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA). On the daily chart, the RSI has remained around 50 for the past month, indicating a continued state of consolidation.
The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index is scheduled to be released at 11:00 p.m. today. The European markets will be closed again today, as they were on the 3rd, due to the Easter holiday. With major markets closed, we should be particularly vigilant for sudden spikes in volatility.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
