Should We Be Wary of Further Downside in the Pound-Dollar Exchange Rate, Which Has Hit a New Year-to-Date Low?

Should We Be Wary of Further Downside in the Pound-Dollar Exchange Rate, Which Has Hit a New Year-to-Date Low?

16.03.2026

In the U.S. currency markets last weekend, the Canadian dollar fell against the yen following the release of Canada’s February employment statistics on the 13th, which showed the unemployment rate had worsened by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s 6.5% to 6.7%. The CAD/JPY pair fell from 117.020 to 116.091.It plummeted to just below the 200-period SMA on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has already broken below the 20-period MA support line, signaling a breakdown of the uptrend, while on the daily chart, it is currently pulling back after touching the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands.

European currencies saw the pound fall against the U.S. dollar after the UK’s January industrial production figures, released on the 13th, showed a deterioration from the previous month’s 0.5% increase to a 0.1% rise on a seasonally adjusted basis. The GBP/USD exchange rate fell from 1.3370 to 1.3220.The pair declined while facing resistance at the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has already been pushed down from 46 to 30, and on the daily chart, the pair has hit a new year-to-date low. Candlesticks have fallen to near the -3σ level of the Bollinger Bands.

Today’s economic indicators include the UK Rightmove House Price Index at 9:01, Canadian Housing Starts and the Canadian Consumer Price Index at 21:15, the U.S. New York Fed Manufacturing Index at 21:15, U.S. Industrial Production at 22:15, and the U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index at 23:00.No other major economic indicators or notable remarks from key officials are scheduled. Investors should watch for further downside potential in the GBP/USD pair, which has hit a new year-to-date low.