Should investors be wary of further downside potential for the euro, which has continued to fall against the Oceania currencies?

Should investors be wary of further downside potential for the euro, which has continued to fall against the Oceania currencies?

08.12.2025

Last weekend, following the release of Canada’s November employment statistics on the 5th—which showed the unemployment rate coming in at 6.5%, 0.5 percentage points below the market forecast of 7.0%—the Canadian dollar outperformed other currencies, becoming the strongest in the region. The CAD/JPY pair rose from 110.720 to 112.376, surging from the -2σ to the +3σ levels on the hourly Bollinger Bands.The 4-hour chart showed a similar price movement to the hourly chart, and on the daily chart, the RSI rose from 55 to 65, reaching a new year-to-date high.

Among European currencies, the euro fell against the Australian dollar.The EUR/AUD pair fell from 1.7628 to 1.7530. The downtrend along the 10-period moving average on the hourly chart continued. On the 4-hour chart, the price is moving along the -2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, while on the daily chart, it has stalled at its lowest level since June of this year. This marks the fourth consecutive day of decline. Given that the upside remains heavy even during today’s Asian session, we should be on guard for further weakness during the European session.

Today’s economic indicators include Japan’s Monthly Labor Survey at 8:30, Japan’s Real GDP and Balance of Payments at 8:50, Japan’s Tankan Survey at 14:00, and Germany’sIndustrial Production, at 26:00 UK MPC Member Taylor’s remarks, at 27:00 US 3-year Treasury auction, and at 27:30 UK BOE Deputy Governor Lombardelli’s remarks. We should remain cautious about the downside potential for the euro, which has continued to decline against the Oceania currencies.