Should investors be wary of further downside potential for the euro, which has continued to fall against the Oceania currencies?

Should investors be wary of further downside potential for the euro, which has continued to fall against the Oceania currencies?

08.12.2025

Last weekend, following the release of Canada’s November employment statistics on the 5th—which showed the unemployment rate coming in at 6.5%, 0.5 percentage points below the market forecast of 7.0%—the Canadian dollar outperformed other currencies, becoming the strongest in the region. The CAD/JPY pair rose from 110.720 to 112.376, surging from the -2σ to the +3σ levels on the hourly Bollinger Bands.The 4-hour chart showed a similar price movement to the hourly chart, and on the daily chart, the RSI rose from 55 to 65, reaching a new year-to-date high.

Among European currencies, the euro fell against the Australian dollar.The EUR/AUD pair fell from 1.7628 to 1.7530. The downtrend along the 10-period moving average on the hourly chart continued. On the 4-hour chart, the price is moving along the -2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, while on the daily chart, it has stalled at its lowest level since June of this year. This marks the fourth consecutive day of decline. Given that the upside remains heavy during today’s Asian session, we should remain vigilant for further weakness during the European session.

Today’s economic indicators include Japan’s Monthly Labor Survey at 8:30, Japan’s Real GDP and Balance of Payments at 8:50, Japan’s Economic Watchers Survey at 14:00, Germany’sGerman Industrial Production at 2:00 a.m., remarks by MPC member Taylor at 2:00 a.m., a U.S. 3-year Treasury auction at 2:30 a.m., and remarks by BOE Deputy Governor Lombardelli at 2:30 a.m. We should remain cautious about further downside potential for the euro, which has continued to decline against the Oceania currencies.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed