Despite Unchanged Canadian Unemployment Rate, Attention Turns to Downside Potential for the Canadian Dollar Against the Yen

Despite Unchanged Canadian Unemployment Rate, Attention Turns to the Downside Potential of the Canadian Dollar Against the Yen

13.10.2025

Last weekend, the Canadian dollar fell against the yen following the release of Canada’s September employment statistics on the 10th, even though the unemployment rate remained unchanged from the previous month at 7.1%. The CAD/JPY pair fell from 109.282 to 107.934.A downtrend has emerged along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the price has broken significantly below the 20-period MA—which had been acting as support—with a real body candle, while on the daily chart, the price has rebounded sharply after touching the +3σ level of the Bollinger Bands.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc rose against the U.S. dollar. The USD/CHF exchange rate fell from 0.8067 to 0.7994.On the hourly chart, the price has moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has plummeted from 73 to 44, and on the daily chart, a sharp pullback is visible from the line that marked last month’s high. Meanwhile, on the weekly chart, the 20-period MA is acting as a resistance level, and the candlesticks are reversing.

Today’s scheduled events include remarks by Green, a member of the UK’s MPC, at 20:05; remarks by Paulson, President of the Philadelphia Fed, at 25:55; and remarks by Mann, a member of the UK’s MPC, at 28:10. No other major events are scheduled.Additionally, the Japanese and U.S. markets are closed today for holidays. Although Canada’s unemployment rate remained unchanged, the Canadian dollar fell against the yen, so we should keep an eye on the downside potential for the CAD.