Concerns over further downside potential for the euro against the U.S. dollar

Concerns over further downside potential for the euro against the U.S. dollar

10.10.2025

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the Canadian dollar fell against the yen. The CAD/JPY pair dropped from 109.745 to 109.073. On the hourly chart, it fell from the +3σ to the -3σ Bollinger Band. On the 4-hour chart, it has already broken below the 10-day moving average (MA), which had been acting as support, and is now attempting to test the 20-day MA. On the daily chart, the RSI, which had risen to just under 70, has fallen to 63.On the weekly chart, a reversal is observed following a touch of the +3σ Bollinger Band.

Among European currencies, the euro fell against the U.S. dollar. The EUR/USD pair has fallen for four consecutive days. The hourly RSI has dropped from 57 to 22. On the 4-hour chart, the downtrend along the 20-day moving average (MA) continues, and on the daily chart, the price has fallen below the level of last month’s low. Furthermore, on the weekly chart, the price is positioned just below the 20-day MA, bringing it to the brink of a potential end to the uptrend that has been in place since early this year.

Today's economic indicators include remarks by RBA Governor Block at 7:00 a.m., Japan's domestic corporate goods price index at 8:50 a.m., and the U.S. Daily Report at 10:40 a.m.:remarks by the President of the San Francisco Fed, 21:30 Canadian employment data, 22:45 remarks by U.S. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, 23:00 U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and 26:00 remarks by St. Louis Fed President Musalem.Note that today’s scheduled fiscal balance report has been postponed due to the U.S. government shutdown. Investors should remain cautious regarding the downside potential for the euro, which has weakened against the U.S. dollar.