All eyes are on whether the rising euro-dollar exchange rate will shift following the policy rate announcement

All eyes are on whether the rising euro-dollar exchange rate will shift following the policy rate announcement

17.09.2025

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell against the euro despite the fact that U.S. August retail sales, including core month-over-month figures, showed a recovery from the previous month. The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.1756 to 1.1877. The rise followed the +2σ line of the hourly Bollinger Bands.On the 4-hour chart, the RSI rose from 61 to 82. On the daily chart, the price surged to the +3σ level of the Bollinger Bands, setting a new year-to-date high.

Among European currencies, the pound rose against the U.S. dollar. The GBP/USD pair rose from 1.3594 to 1.3671. An uptrend has formed along the 10-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has risen to 73 along the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, the pair has hit a new high for the month. This has resulted in higher highs and higher lows.

Today’s schedule includes Japan’s trade balance (customs-cleared basis) at 8:50, Australia’s Westpac Leading Index at 9:30, the UK’s Consumer Price Index and Retail Price Index at 15:00, remarks by ECB President Lagarde at 16:30, the Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index at 18:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00,at 9:30 PM, Canada’s Government Bond Turnover and U.S. Housing Starts; at 10:45 PM, Canada’s BOC Policy Rate and Statement; at 11:30 PM, U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories and Canada’s BOC Governor Macklem’s press conference; at 3:00 AM, the U.S. FOMC Policy Rate and Statement; and at 3:30 AM, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell.We will be watching closely to see if the rising EUR/USD pair reacts to the policy rate announcements.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed