All eyes are on whether the rising euro-dollar exchange rate will shift following the announcement of the policy interest rate.

All eyes are on whether the rising euro-dollar exchange rate will shift following the announcement of the policy interest rate.

17.09.2025

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell against the euro despite the fact that U.S. August retail sales, released yesterday, showed a recovery from the previous month, including the core month-over-month figure. The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.1756 to 1.1877. The rise followed the +2σ line of the hourly Bollinger Bands.On the 4-hour chart, the RSI rose from 61 to 82. On the daily chart, the price surged to the +3σ level of the Bollinger Bands, setting a new year-to-date high.

Among European currencies, the pound rose against the U.S. dollar. The GBP/USD pair rose from 1.3594 to 1.3671. An uptrend has formed along the 10-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has risen to 73 along the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, the pair has hit a new high for the month. This has resulted in higher highs and higher lows.

Today’s schedule includes Japan’s trade balance (customs-cleared basis) at 8:50, Australia’s Westpac Leading Index at 9:30, the UK’s Consumer Price Index and Retail Price Index at 15:00, remarks by ECB President Lagarde at 16:30, the Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index at 18:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00,at 9:30 PM, Canada’s Government Bond Turnover and U.S. Housing Starts; at 10:45 PM, Canada’s BOC Policy Rate and Statement; at 11:30 PM, U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories and a press conference by BOC Governor McClem; at 3:00 AM, the U.S. FOMC Policy Rate and Statement; and at 3:30 AM, remarks by Fed Chair Powell.We will be watching closely to see if the rising EUR/USD pair will react to the policy rate announcements.