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Market Participants May Wait and See on the Euro’s Upside Potential Against the U.S. Dollar

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Market Participants May Wait and See on the Euro’s Upside Potential Against the U.S. Dollar

16.09.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Industrial Production
  2. Canada: Consumer Price Index

In U.S. currency trading yesterday, the Canadian dollar reached its strongest level during U.S. trading hours after Canada’s July manufacturing sales, released yesterday, rebounded to 2.5% from 0.3% the previous month. The CAD/JPY pair rose for the third consecutive day, climbing from 106.455 to 107.054.The price rose without hesitation at the resistance level of the 200-period SMA on the hourly chart. The 4-hour chart showed a similar price movement to the hourly chart, and on the daily chart, the 200-period SMA acted as a support level, causing the price to reverse. It is currently breaking above that level.

European currencies rose as the euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar following yesterday’s release of the EU’s July trade balance, which improved to 5.3 billion euros from 2.8 billion euros the previous month.The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.1716 to 1.1773. Prices were pushed higher while finding support at the 75-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, candlesticks have extended to the +3σ level of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, prices have recovered to levels that would mark a new high for the month.

Today’s economic indicators include: Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity Index at 1:30 p.m., the UK’s Employment Statistics and ILO Unemployment Rate at 3:00 p.m., Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and Eurozone Industrial Production at 6:00 p.m., Canada’s Housing Starts at 9:15 p.m.,at 21:30, U.S. Retail Sales, Canadian Consumer Price Index, and U.S. Import Price Index; at 22:15, U.S. Industrial Production; at 23:00, U.S. Business Inventories and the U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index; and at 26:00, a U.S. 20-year Treasury auction.We will cautiously monitor the upside potential of the euro, which has been strengthening against the U.S. dollar.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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