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Market Participants May Wait and See Regarding the Canadian Dollar’s Recovery Potential as Resistance Grows Heavier

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Market Participants May Wait and See Regarding the Canadian Dollar’s Recovery Potential as Resistance Grows Heavier

22.05.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. Minutes of the ECB Governing Council Meeting Released
  2. Prices of Agricultural and Industrial Products

In U.S. currency trading the previous day, the Canadian dollar fell against the yen. The CAD/JPY pair fell from 104.002 to 103.353. Price action was seen fluctuating around the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, candlesticks have stalled as the 200-period EMA acts as resistance to the upside, and on the daily chart, the pair is already trading below the 20-period MA, highlighting the weight on the upside. We will wait and see whether the Canadian dollar continues to weaken during today’s U.S. trading session.

Among European currencies, the pound weakened the most after the U.S. dollar. The GBP/JPY pair fell from 193.468 to 192.576, with the decline tracking the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, candlesticks have fallen from the +2σ to the -3σ levels of the Bollinger Bands, while on the daily chart, the pair is currently searching for direction just below the zone where short- and long-term moving averages converge. We will be closely monitoring the direction of the pound against the yen to see if it continues to weaken.

Today’s schedule includes remarks by Bank of Japan Board Member Noguchi at 10:30, Japan’s machine tool orders at 15:00, remarks by BOE Deputy Governor Breeden at 16:15, and Germany’s manufacturing andNon-Manufacturing PMI, at 17:00: Eurozone Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing PMI and Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index, at 17:30: UK Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing PMI; at 20:30, the release of the minutes from the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council meeting; at 21:30, Canada’s industrial product prices and U.S. initial jobless claims; at 22:45, U.S. Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing PMI; and at 23:00, U.S. existing home sales.We intend to cautiously monitor the Canadian dollar’s potential for recovery as it faces resistance on the upside.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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