Will the market wait and see how much further the Swiss franc can rise?
21.05.2025
- UK Retail Price Index
- U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index
In U.S. trading yesterday, the U.S. dollar weakened against the yen. The USD/JPY pair fell from 145.496 to 144.105. It dropped from the +3σ to the -3σ levels on the hourly Bollinger Bands. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is currently attempting to break below the 200-period SMA support line, and on the daily chart, it has been falling for six consecutive days. We will be watching closely to see if the dollar’s weakness continues during today’s U.S. trading session.
Among European currencies, the Swiss franc emerged as the strongest performer toward the end of U.S. trading hours. The CHF/JPY pair rose from 173.120 to 174.421, reversing its trend from the -3σ to the +2σ levels on the hourly Bollinger Bands. On the 4-hour chart, the 200-period EMA is acting as support, while the daily chart shows a rebound from this month’s lows. We will be watching to see if the Swiss franc maintains its momentum during today’s European trading session.
Today’s schedule includes Japan’s trade balance (customs-cleared basis) at 8:50, Australia’s Westpac Leading Index at 9:30, the UK’s Consumer Price Index and Retail Price Index at 15:00, South Africa’s Consumer Price Index at 17:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index and South Africa’s retail sales at 20:00,at 11:30 PM, the U.S. weekly crude oil inventory; at 1:15 AM, remarks by U.S. Richmond Fed President Barkin; at 1:20 AM, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman; and at 2:00 AM, the U.S. 20-year Treasury auction. We intend to cautiously monitor the upside potential of the Swiss franc, which has been rising.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
