With the long weekend in Europe and the U.S. coming to an end, will currency strength and weakness shift, or will the market wait and see?

With the long weekend in Europe and the U.S. coming to an end, will currency strength and weakness shift, or will the market wait and see?

21.04.2025

Last weekend, with U.S. markets closed, volatility in the USD/JPY pair declined. The USD/JPY fell from 142.438 to 142.092, trading above the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the decline along the 20-period moving average continues, and on the daily chart, the RSI has fallen to 30, indicating oversold conditions. We will be watching price action during European trading hours to see if USD/JPY shows a rebound at the start of the week.

In the European currency markets, the euro rose against the U.S. dollar the day after the ECB’s policy rate announcement. The EUR/USD pair rebounded from 1.1356 to 1.1396. On the hourly chart, the price moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to above it. On the 4-hour chart, the price is rising along the 20-period MA. On the daily chart, a band walk along the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands has been confirmed.

China’s prime lending rate is scheduled for 10:00, followed by remarks from Chicago Fed President Goolsbee at 21:30, the U.S. Leading Economic Index at 23:00, and New Zealand’s trade balance at 7:45 the following morning. As markets reopen following the long weekend in Europe and the U.S., we will carefully monitor whether currency strength and weakness shift.