With the long weekend in Europe and the U.S. now over, will currency strength and weakness shift, or will the market wait to see which direction it takes?

With the long weekend in Europe and the U.S. coming to an end, will currency strength and weakness shift, or will the market wait and see which direction it takes?

21.04.2025

Last weekend, with U.S. markets closed, volatility in the USD/JPY pair declined. The USD/JPY fell from 142.438 to 142.092, trading above the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the decline along the 20-period moving average continues, and on the daily chart, the RSI has fallen to 30, indicating an oversold condition. We will be watching price action during European trading hours to see if USD/JPY will rebound at the start of the week.

Among European currencies, the euro rose against the U.S. dollar the day after the ECB’s policy rate announcement.The euro rebounded against the U.S. dollar from 1.1356 to 1.1396. On the hourly chart, the price moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to above it. On the 4-hour chart, the price is rising along the 20-period MA. On the daily chart, a band walk along the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands has been confirmed.

China’s prime lending rate is scheduled for 10:00, remarks by U.S. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee at 21:30, the U.S. Leading Economic Index at 23:00, and New Zealand’s trade balance at 7:45 the following day.As markets reopen following the long weekend in Europe and the U.S., we will carefully assess whether currency strength and weakness will shift and determine the direction of the market.