With the 0.25% rate cut weighing on the dollar’s upside, should we be wary of its downside potential?

With the 0.25% rate cut weighing on the dollar’s upside, should we be wary of its downside potential?

08.11.2024

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the dollar weakened slightly following the release of the FOMC statement, as the policy rate was cut by 0.25%—in line with market consensus. The USD/JPY pair fell from 154.697 to 152.692.On the hourly chart, the price has moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the price has broken below the support line of the 20-period MA, and on the daily chart, a pullback has occurred from the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands.

Among European currencies, the euro fell against the yen. The EUR/JPY pair dropped from 165.962 to just above the 165 level. It broke below the 200-period SMA on the hourly chart with a real body. On the 4-hour chart, it has already broken below the 75-period MA, which had previously provided support, and on the daily chart, prices are beginning to move downward from just below the 200-period SMA; therefore, we should pay close attention to price movements during European trading hours.

Today’s key events include remarks by BOE Deputy Governor Breeden at 11:30, Japan’s Leading Economic Index at 14:00, France’strade balance and current account balance, remarks by UK MPC member Pill at 21:15, Canadian employment data at 22:30, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 24:00, remarks by US Fed Governor Bowman at 25:00, and remarks by US St. Louis Fed President Musalem at 28:30.We should remain highly vigilant regarding the downside potential for the US dollar, which has faced resistance following the 0.25% rate cut.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed