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With the U.S. dollar facing resistance following a 0.25% rate cut, should we be wary of its downside potential?

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With the U.S. dollar facing resistance following a 0.25% rate cut, should we be wary of its downside potential?

08.11.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. Remarks by Pill, a Member of the Bank of England’s MPC
  2. U.S. – Musalem: Remarks by the President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar weakened slightly following the release of the FOMC announcement, as the policy rate was cut by 0.25%—in line with market consensus. The USD/JPY pair fell from 154.697 to 152.692.On the hourly chart, the price has moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the price has broken below the support line formed by the 20-period MA, and on the daily chart, it has pulled back from the +2σ level of the Bollinger Bands.

Among European currencies, the euro fell against the yen. The euro/yen pair dropped from 165.962 to exactly the 165-yen level. The price broke below the 200-period SMA on the hourly chart with a real body candle.On the 4-hour chart, the price has already broken below the 75-period moving average (MA) that had been providing support, and on the daily chart, the price is beginning to move downward from just below the 200-period SMA. Therefore, traders should pay close attention to price movements during European trading hours.

Today’s economic indicators include remarks by BOE Deputy Governor Breeden at 11:30, Japan’s Leading Economic Index at 14:00, France’s trade balance and current account at 16:45, and at 21:15, remarks by a member of the UK’sremarks by MPC Member Pill, at 22:30: Canada’s employment report, at 24:00: the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, at 25:00: remarks by Fed Governor Bowman, and at 28:30: remarks by St. Louis Fed President Musalem.We should remain highly vigilant regarding the downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has faced resistance following a 0.25% rate cut.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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