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Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise following Trump’s landslide victory?

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Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise following Trump’s landslide victory?

07.11.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. Germany: Industrial Production
  2. U.S. FOMC Policy Rate and Statement Announcement

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the U.S. dollar strengthened throughout the day following the Republicans’ landslide victory in the U.S. presidential election.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0936 to 1.0681, plummeting to the -3σ level of the hourly Bollinger Bands. On the 4-hour chart, the price has moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it, and on the daily chart, the price has broken significantly below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) support line with a solid candlestick body.

Among European currencies, the euro rose slightly against the yen. The euro/yen pair rose from 164.920 to 166.103. It moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart to above it.On the 4-hour chart, prices are trading just below the 20-period moving average, while on the daily chart, the short- and long-term moving averages are converging. Therefore, we should exercise caution in assessing whether price fluctuations will occur during European trading hours.

Today’s economic indicators include German industrial production and trade balance at 16:00, UK Halifax house prices at 21:00, the Bank of England’s (BOE) policy rate announcement and statement at 21:00, a press conference by BOE Governor Bailey at 21:30, and U.S.Initial Jobless Claims, at 24:00: U.S. Wholesale Inventories, at 24:30: U.S. Weekly Natural Gas Inventories, at 28:00: U.S. FOMC policy rate decision and statement, and at 28:30: U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s press conference.We intend to cautiously monitor the upside potential of the U.S. dollar, which has risen across the board following Mr. Trump’s landslide victory.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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