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Market Participants May Wait and See How Much Further the U.S. Dollar Can Rise Amid Strong U.S. ADP Data

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Market Participants May Wait and See How Much Further the U.S. Dollar Can Rise Amid Strong U.S. ADP Data

03.10.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. Turkey: Consumer Price Index
  2. U.S. Durable Goods Orders

In U.S. currency markets yesterday, the U.S. dollar emerged as the strongest currency during U.S. trading hours after the September ADP employment report—released yesterday—showed a significant improvement from the previous month’s 99,000 to 143,000, exceeding market expectations of 121,000.The EUR/USD pair fell gradually from 1.1082 to 1.1032. It continues to decline during today’s Asian trading session. Since the daily chart shows prices have fallen to near last month’s low, we will be watching to see if the U.S. dollar strengthens further during European trading hours.

Among European currencies, the pound rose against the yen. The GBP/JPY pair rose from 190.401 to 194.413, gaining 4 yen in a single day.On the 4-hour chart, the 200-period SMA is firmly acting as a support level, and on the daily chart, the RSI—which had been trending downward—is turning upward again. We will be watching closely to see if the pound continues to strengthen against the yen during U.S. trading hours.

Today, at 10:30, Australia’s trade balance will be released; at 15:00, Turkey’s consumer price index and producer price index will be released; at 15:30, Switzerland’s consumer price index will be released; at 16:50, France’s non-manufacturing PMI will be released;at 4:55 PM, Germany’s Non-Manufacturing PMI; at 5:00 PM, the Eurozone’s Non-Manufacturing PMI; at 5:30 PM, the UK’s Non-Manufacturing PMI; at 6:00 PM, the Eurozone’s Producer Price Index; at 8:30 PM, the U.S. Challenger Layoff Count;U.S. Initial Jobless Claims at 21:30, U.S. PMI at 22:45, U.S. Durable Goods Orders and U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 23:00, and remarks by U.S. Atlanta Fed President Bostic at 23:40.Given the strong U.S. ADP report, we will cautiously monitor the upside potential of the rising U.S. dollar.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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