Market participants may be waiting to see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise following strong U.S. ADP data

Market participants may be waiting to see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise following strong U.S. ADP data

03.10.2024

In U.S. trading yesterday, the U.S. dollar emerged as the strongest currency as the September ADP employment report—released yesterday—showed a significant improvement from the previous month’s 99,000 to 143,000, surpassing market expectations of 121,000. The EUR/USD pair fell gradually from 1.1082 to 1.1032 and has continued to decline during today’s Asian trading session.On the daily chart, prices have fallen to near last month’s low, so we will be watching to see if the U.S. dollar strengthens further during European trading hours.

Among European currencies, the pound rose against the yen. The GBP/JPY pair climbed from 190.401 to 194.413, gaining 4 yen in a single day. On the 4-hour chart, the 200-day SMA is firmly acting as a support level, and on the daily chart, the RSI—which had been trending downward—is turning upward again. We will be watching closely to see if the pound continues to strengthen against the yen during U.S. trading hours.

Today, at 10:30, Australia’strade balance at 10:30, Turkey’s Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index at 15:00, Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index at 15:30, France’s Non-Manufacturing PMI at 16:50, Germany’s Non-Manufacturing PMI at 16:55, the Eurozone’s Non-Manufacturing PMI at 17:00, the UK’s Non-Manufacturing PMI at 17:30, and the Eurozone’sProducer Price Index, at 8:30 PM: U.S. Challenger Layoffs, at 9:30 PM: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, at 10:45 PM: U.S. PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index, at 11:00 PM: U.S. Durable Goods Orders and U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, and at 11:40 PM: remarks by Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed.Given the strong US ADP report, we intend to cautiously monitor the upside potential of the rising US dollar.