With strong U.S. JOLTS data and a firm floor under the dollar, should we be wary of its upside potential?
02.10.2024
- Japan Consumer Sentiment Index
- U.S. ADP Employment Report
In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the dollar fluctuated against the yen after the August JOLTS job openings figure, released yesterday, was revised upward to 8.04 million—contrary to market expectations. The USD/JPY pair traded between 142.981 and 144.515, with price action straddling the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) is positioned above as a resistance level, while on the daily chart, the RSI is showing a slight upward trend.
European currencies saw the Swiss franc trade in a narrow range against the yen after Switzerland’s September manufacturing PMI, released yesterday, rebounded to 49.9 from 49.0 the previous month. The CHF/JPY pair traded between 169.427 and 170.660, fluctuating with support from the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart.Similarly, on the 4-hour chart, price action was seen just below the 200-period SMA, and on the daily chart, the pair is holding firm above the 20-period MA.
Today’s schedule includes: Japan’s monetary base at 8:50, Japan’s Consumer Sentiment Index at 14:00, France’s budget balance at 15:45, the Eurozone’s employment statistics at 18:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00, Brazil’s industrial production at 21:00, the U.S. ADP Employment Report at 21:15, and the U.S. Hamack Index at 22:00:Remarks by Cleveland Fed President Hammack; at 11:30 PM: US Weekly Crude Oil Inventories; at 12:00 AM: Remarks by Fed Governor Bowman; at 1:00 AM: Russian Employment Statistics; and at 1:15 AM: Remarks by Richmond Fed President Barkin. With strong US JOLTS data supporting the dollar’s downside, we must remain highly vigilant regarding the currency’s upside potential.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
