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Should We Keep a Close Eye on the Swiss Franc’s Direction, Given That the CPI Did Not Rise and the Currency Weakened Against the Yen?

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Should We Keep a Close Eye on the Swiss Franc’s Direction, Given That the CPI Did Not Rise and the Currency Weakened Against the Yen?

05.06.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. European Services PMI
  2. Australia's Real GDP

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen after the release of U.S. April manufacturing new orders data, which showed a decline from 1.6% in the previous month to 0.7%. The USD/JPY pair fell by approximately 1.9 yen, from 156.482 to 154.534, marking its second consecutive day of decline.On the 4-hour chart, the pair has broken through the 20-MA and is extending its decline below the 200-SMA, while on the daily chart, it has not yet hit a new recent low. We will need to carefully assess whether the U.S. dollar will continue to weaken from here.

European currencies saw the Swiss franc weaken against the yen after Switzerland’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI), released yesterday, remained unchanged year-over-year at 1.4% compared to the previous month. The CHF/JPY pair fell from 174.737 to 173.201, breaking below the 75-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the pair is barely holding above the 20-period moving average, and on the daily chart, it continues to trade above the 10-period moving average.

Today’s schedule includes South Korea’s real GDP at 8:00, Japan’s Monthly Labor Survey/Total Cash Wages at 8:30, the Philippines’ Consumer Price Index at 10:00, Australia’s real GDP at 10:30, China’s Caixin PMI at 10:45,2:00 p.m. India’s Services PMI, 3:45 p.m. France’s Industrial Production, 4:55 p.m. Germany’s Services PMI, 5:00 p.m. Eurozone’s Services PMI, 6:00 p.m. Eurozone’s Producer Price Index,U.S. ADP Employment Report at 21:15, U.S. PMI at 22:45, BOC Policy Rate and Statement Release in Canada, U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 23:00, and a press conference by BOC Governor McClem at 23:30.Is the Swiss franc’s decline against the yen—which occurred despite the CPI remaining flat—merely a corrective pullback? We intend to carefully monitor the situation to determine the direction of the market.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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