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With the Swiss franc rising on the back of a strong manufacturing PMI, attention is turning to its upside potential

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With the Swiss franc rising on the back of a strong manufacturing PMI, attention is turning to its upside potential

04.06.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. Swiss Consumer Price Index
  2. U.S. Manufacturing New Orders

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar became the weakest currency during U.S. trading hours after the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index for May, released yesterday, fell to 48.7 from 49.2 the previous month.The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0827 to 1.0909. A “band walk” along the +2σ line of the hourly Bollinger Bands was observed. Since prices have similarly extended to the +2σ line on the 4-hour chart as well, we will be watching for the potential for the U.S. dollar to weaken during European trading hours.

European currencies saw the Swiss franc emerge as the strongest currency during U.S. trading hours after Switzerland’s May manufacturing PMI, released yesterday, rose sharply to 46.4 from 41.4 the previous month. The USD/CHF pair fell from 0.9035 to 0.8947.The price fell from above the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has dropped to 23.5, an oversold signal, and on the daily chart, the price has fallen just below the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), so traders should watch for a correction in the Swiss franc during European trading hours.

Today’s economic indicators include the South Korean Consumer Price Index at 8:00, the UK BRC Same-Store Sales at 8:01, Japan’s Monetary Base at 8:50, Malaysia’s Manufacturing PMI at 9:30, Australia’s First-Quarter Current Account Balance at 10:30,3:30 p.m. Swiss Consumer Price Index, 3:45 p.m. French Budget Balance,4:55 p.m. German Employment Statistics, 6:30 p.m. South African Real GDP, 9:00 p.m. Brazilian Real GDP, and 11:00 p.m. U.S. JOLTS Job Openings, U.S. New Manufacturing Orders, and U.S. Durable Goods Orders.We will be watching for further upside potential in the Swiss franc, which has strengthened on the back of a robust manufacturing PMI.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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Should We Keep a Close Eye on the Direction of the Swiss Franc, Which Hasn't Risen but Has Weakened Against the Yen?
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