With the Swiss franc rising on the back of a strong manufacturing PMI, attention is turning to its upside potential
04.06.2024
- Swiss Consumer Price Index
- Rice · New Orders in the Manufacturing Sector
In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar became the weakest currency during U.S. trading hours after the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index for May, released yesterday, fell to 48.7 from 49.2 the previous month.The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0827 to 1.0909. A band walk along the +2σ line of the hourly Bollinger Bands was observed. Since prices have similarly extended to the +2σ line on the 4-hour chart, we should watch for the potential for the US dollar to decline during European trading hours.
European currencies saw the Swiss franc emerge as the strongest currency during U.S. trading hours after Switzerland’s May manufacturing PMI, released yesterday, rose sharply to 46.4 from 41.4 the previous month. The USD/CHF pair fell from 0.9035 to 0.8947.The price fell from above the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has dropped to 23.5, a sign of oversold conditions, and on the daily chart, the price has fallen just below the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA). Therefore, we should watch for a correction in the Swiss franc during European trading hours.
Today’s economic indicators include South Korea’s Consumer Price Index at 8:00, the UK’s BRC Same-Store Sales at 8:01, Japan’s Monetary Base at 8:50, Malaysia’s Manufacturing PMI at 9:30, Australia’s Q1 Current Account Balance at 10:30, Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index at 15:30, France’s Budget Balance at 15:45,at 4:55 PM, German Employment Statistics; at 6:30 PM, South African Real GDP; at 9:00 PM, Brazilian Real GDP; and at 11:00 PM, U.S. JOLTS Job Openings, U.S. Manufacturing New Orders, and U.S. Durable Goods Orders. We will be watching for further upside potential in the Swiss franc, which has risen on the back of strong Manufacturing PMI data.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
