Will the U.S. dollar, which has been weakening following the decline in first-quarter GDP (revised figure), show signs of recovery?

Will the U.S. dollar, which has been weakening following the decline in first-quarter GDP (revised figure), show signs of recovery?

31.05.2024

In U.S. currency trading yesterday, the U.S. dollar weakened during U.S. trading hours after the revised U.S. first-quarter GDP figure, released yesterday, fell from the previous estimate of 1.6% to 1.3%. The USD/JPY pair fell from 157.668 to 156.370.The price fell to the 75-period moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart. Although the price has fallen below the 10-period MA on the daily chart, it remains above the 20-period MA, so we will be watching for a potential recovery during U.S. trading hours.

European currencies saw the Swiss franc rise against the yen after Switzerland’s first-quarter GDP, released yesterday, remained unchanged year-over-year at 0.6% compared to the previous reading. The CHF/JPY pair rose by about 2 yen, from 171.841 to 173.797, significantly surpassing this month’s high.On the 4-hour chart, the pair is moving along the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, it has risen for six consecutive days.

Today's economic indicators include South Korea'sIndustrial Production at 8:00; Japan’s Tokyo Consumer Price Index and Employment Statistics at 8:30; Japan’s Industrial Production at 8:50; China’s Manufacturing and Services PMI at 10:30; France’s Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index at 15:45; the UK’sconsumer credit balances; at 18:00, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index; at 21:00, India’s real GDP and South Africa’s trade balance; at 21:30, Canada’s real GDP and the U.S. PCE deflator; and at 22:45, the U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index.We will carefully assess the resilience of the U.S. dollar, which has been trading weakly following the decline in first-quarter GDP (revised).