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Germany's May CPI Rebounds: Should We Watch the Euro's Direction?

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Germany's May CPI Rebounds; Should We Watch the Euro's Direction?

30.05.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
  2. Canada: Current Account Balance

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the Canadian dollar became the weakest currency during U.S. trading hours. Although it typically moves in tandem with the U.S. dollar, it fell in inverse proportion to the U.S. dollar, which was the strongest currency. The CAD/JPY pair fell from 115.282 to 114.743.On the 4-hour chart, the trend—which had been supported by the 20-period moving average (MA)—has broken down, leading to a decline. However, on the daily chart, the pair is still trading above the 10-period MA, so we will be watching closely to see if the Canadian dollar recovers during U.S. trading hours.

Despite the preliminary May consumer price index for Germany, released yesterday, showing a year-over-year increase of 2.4%—up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s 2.2%—the euro fell against the yen.The euro/yen pair fell from this month’s high of 170.797 to 169.956, dropping to the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has broken below the 20-period moving average (MA) that had been providing support, and on the daily chart, the RSI has begun to pull back from just below the 70 level.

Today’s economic indicators include New Zealand housing permits at 7:45, Japan’s foreign and domestic securities investment at 8:50, Australia’s housing permits at 10:30,1:00 PM: Thailand Manufacturing Production Index; 4:00 PM: Switzerland Q1 GDP; 6:00 PM: Eurozone Employment Statistics; 9:30 PM: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Canada Current Account, U.S. Real GDP, U.S. Wholesale Inventories,U.S. PCE Deflator, at 23:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales, at 24:00 U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, remarks by BOE Deputy Governor Breeden, and at 25:05 remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams are scheduled.Given that Germany’s May CPI has rebounded, we intend to carefully monitor the direction of the euro.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets, and also has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

Previous Article

Should We Keep an Eye on the Upside Potential of the Euro, Which Continues to Rise?

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Will the U.S. dollar, which has been weakening following the decline in first-quarter GDP (revised figure), show signs of recovery?
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