Concerns Over Further Declines in the U.S. Dollar Following a Drop in U.S. CPI?

Concerns Over Further Declines in the U.S. Dollar Following a Drop in U.S. CPI

16.05.2024

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell following the release of the April Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed a year-over-year increase of 3.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s 3.5%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also declined from 3.8% to 3.6% year-over-year.The USD/JPY pair fell from 156.551 to 154.697. It has continued to decline during today’s Asian trading session, already dropping to 154.164.

European currencies rose as the euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar following yesterday’s release of the Eurozone’s March industrial production figures, which showed an improvement year-over-year from the previous month’s 6.4% decline to a 1.0% decline.The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0813 to 1.0890, rebounding from the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, a band walk along the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands can be observed, and on the daily chart, the pair has broken above and surpassed last month’s recent high.

Today’s schedule includes Japan’s first-quarter GDP and foreign and domestic securities investment at 8:50 a.m., Australia’s employment report at 10:30 a.m., Japan’s industrial production at 1:30 p.m., Norway’s real GDP at 3:00 p.m.,at 4:00 PM, the Philippines’ BSP overnight lending rate; at 8:30 PM, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel; at 9:30 PM, the U.S. import and export price indices and the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index;U.S. Housing Starts, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Industrial Production at 10:15 p.m., remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Barr at 11:00 p.m., and remarks by U.S. Atlanta Fed President Bostic at 1:00 a.m.We should pay close attention to the downside potential of the U.S. dollar, which has weakened following the decline in the U.S. CPI.