With the ECB keeping its policy rate unchanged, investors should watch for further downside potential in the euro

With the ECB keeping its policy rate unchanged, investors should watch for further downside potential in the euro

12.04.2024

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rose during U.S. trading hours after the number of new U.S. unemployment insurance claims, released yesterday, fell slightly from the previous figure of 221,000 to 211,000.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0756 to 1.699. The decline occurred as the price was capped by the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD price has fallen to the -2σ level of the Bollinger Bands, and a similar pattern is visible on the daily chart.

Following yesterday’s ECB policy rate announcement, in which the policy rate was kept unchanged at 4.50%, the euro became the weakest currency among major currencies.The EUR/JPY pair fell in contrast to the movement of the USD/JPY pair, dropping from 164.695 to 163.934. On the 4-hour chart, while the 75-period moving average is providing support on the downside, the price is forming lower highs, so we will be watching closely to see if a recovery occurs during European trading hours.

Today’s schedule includes South Korea’s employment statistics at 8:00, Singapore’s real GDP at 9:00, Japan’s industrial production at 13:30, Sweden’s consumer price index, the UK’s industrial production, the UK’s manufacturing output, and Germany’s consumer price index at 15:00, France’s consumer price index at 15:45, and India’sIndustrial Production, at 9:30 PM U.S. Import/Export Price Index, at 10:00 PM Canadian Existing Home Sales, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Collins, at 11:00 PM U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and at 3:30 AM U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Bostic’s remarks.We will closely monitor the downside potential for the euro, which fell after the ECB kept its policy rate unchanged.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed