Will the euro, which has been weakening ahead of the ECB's policy rate decision, show signs of resilience?
11.04.2024
- Europe: ECB Policy Rate and Statement Release
- Japan · Money Supply
In the previous day’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar emerged as the strongest currency during U.S. trading hours as U.S. Treasury yields rose following a rise in the U.S. March CPI that defied market expectations.The EUR/USD pair fell by about 130 pips from 1.0866 to 1.0728. It broke through the -3σ level of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands. On the daily chart, the decline has brought the pair down to the level of its recent low, so we need to carefully assess whether a rebound will occur or if the pair will break below this level.
Ahead of today’s ECB policy rate announcement, the euro is falling against the yen. This movement contrasts with the rise in the USD/JPY pair, with the euro falling from 164.980 to 163.904.Both the 4-hour and daily charts show lower highs. While the market expects the ECB to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% today, we will be watching closely to see if the euro continues to weaken ahead of the ECB meeting.
Today, Japan’s money supply will be released at 8:50, the Philippines’ trade balance at 10:00, China’s Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index at 10:30, Mexico’s industrial production and Brazil’s retail sales at 21:00,at 9:15 p.m., the ECB’s policy rate decision and statement; at 9:30 p.m., U.S. initial jobless claims and the U.S. Producer Price Index; at 9:45 p.m., a press conference by ECB President Lagarde; at 11:00 p.m., remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Barkin:Remarks by Richmond Fed President Barkin, and at 26:00, a U.S. 30-year Treasury auction is scheduled. We will carefully assess whether the euro, which has been weakening ahead of the ECB policy rate decision, will show any resilience.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
