Will the euro, which has been weakening ahead of the ECB’s policy rate decision, show signs of resilience?

Will the euro, which has been weakening ahead of the ECB’s policy rate decision, show signs of resilience?

11.04.2024

In the previous day’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar emerged as the strongest currency during U.S. trading hours as U.S. Treasury yields rose following the March U.S. CPI report, which came in higher than market expectations.The EUR/USD pair fell by about 130 pips from 1.0866 to 1.0728. It broke through the -3σ level of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands. On the daily chart, the decline has brought the price down to the level of the recent low, so we need to carefully assess whether a rebound will occur or if the price will break below this level.

Ahead of today’s ECB policy rate announcement, the euro is falling against the yen. This movement contrasts with the rise in the USD/JPY pair, with the euro dropping from 164.980 to 163.904. Both the 4-hour and daily charts show lower highs. While the market expects the ECB to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% today, we will be watching closely to see if the euro continues to weaken ahead of the announcement.

Today, Japan’s money supply will be released at 8:50, the Philippines’ trade balance at 10:00, China’s producer price index and consumer price index at 10:30, and at 21:00, Mexico’s industrial production and Brazil’s retail sales,at 9:15 PM, the ECB policy rate and statement; at 9:30 PM, U.S. initial jobless claims and the U.S. Producer Price Index; at 9:45 PM, a press conference by ECB President Lagarde; at 11:00 PM, remarks by U.S. Richmond Fed President Barkin; and at 2:00 AM, a U.S. 30-year Treasury auction.We will carefully assess whether the euro, which has been weakening ahead of the ECB policy rate decision, will show any resilience.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed