Should we keep an eye on the upside potential of the euro, now that it has become the strongest currency?
13.11.2023
- U.S. Fiscal Balance
- Germany's Trade Balance
Last weekend, the U.S. dollar weakened against the euro after the University of Michigan’s November Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 60.4 from 63.8 the previous month. GBP/USD fell from 1.2237 to 1.2186, finding support just below the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart.From a technical perspective, GBP/USD has been forming higher lows on the daily chart, and the daily RSI has rebounded after falling well below the oversold level of 30 to 19.1. Therefore, I intend to wait and see if the US dollar will weaken this week.
European currencies saw the euro become the strongest currency during U.S. trading hours after ECB President Lagarde stated that “maintaining the policy rate in the 4% range will be sufficient to curb inflation” and that “we are prepared to raise rates again if necessary.”The euro/yen pair rose from 161.222 to 161.945, setting a new high. On the weekly chart, the pair has touched the +3σ line of the Bollinger Bands, and on the monthly chart, the RSI has risen to 75, so it will be worth watching whether the euro continues to trend upward.
Today, Germany’s trade balance is due at 3:00 PM, Turkey’s current account balance at 4:00 PM, Hungary’s industrial production at 4:30 PM, the Czech Republic’s current account balance at 6:00 PM, Israel’s trade balance at 8:00 PM, India’s consumer price index at 9:00 PM, the Philippines’ current account balance at 10:00 PM,a speech by Fed Governor Cook at 10:50 PM, a 6-month Treasury bill auction at 1:30 AM, the U.S. fiscal balance at 4:00 AM, and South Korea’s import and export price inflation rates at 5:00 AM. I intend to closely monitor the upside potential of the euro, which has become the strongest currency.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
