Should We Keep an Eye on the Upside Potential of the Euro, Now That It Has Become the Strongest Currency?
13.11.2023
- U.S. Fiscal Balance
- Germany's Trade Balance
Last weekend, the U.S. dollar weakened against the euro after the University of Michigan’s November Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 60.4 from 63.8 the previous month. The GBP/USD pair fell from 1.2237 to 1.2186.The decline halted just below the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair has been forming higher lows on the daily chart, and the daily RSI—which had fallen well below the oversold level of 30 to 19.1 before rebounding—suggests the US dollar may weaken this week, so I plan to wait and see how the market develops.
European currencies saw the euro become the strongest currency during U.S. trading hours after ECB President Lagarde stated, “Maintaining the policy rate in the 4% range will be sufficient to curb inflation,” and added, “We are prepared to raise rates again if necessary.”The euro/yen pair rose from 161.222 to 161.945, setting a new high. Since the pair has touched the +3σ level of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart and the RSI has risen to 75 on the monthly chart, it will be worth watching whether the euro continues its upward trend.
Today’s schedule includes Germany’s trade balance at 15:00, Turkey’s current account balance at 16:00, Hungary’s industrial production at 16:30, the Czech Republic’s current account balance at 18:00, Israel’s trade balance at 20:00, India’sConsumer Price Index, at 22:00 the Philippines’ current account balance, at 22:50 remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Cook, at 25:30 a U.S. 6-month Treasury bill auction, at 28:00 the U.S. fiscal balance, and at 30:00 South Korea’s import and export price inflation rates.I want to carefully monitor the upside potential of the euro, which has become the strongest currency.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
