Will the U.S. employment report signal a clear weakening of the U.S. dollar?
03.11.2023
- U.S. Employment Report
- France: Industrial Production
In yesterday’s U.S. currency markets, the dollar became the weakest currency as the market digested the FOMC announcement. The USD/JPY pair fell from 150.944, breaking below the key 150-yen level to reach 149.833. It briefly dipped below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart. On the higher-timeframe 4-hour chart, the pair has broken below the 20-period moving average (MA), indicating that the uptrend has ended.On the daily chart, the pair remains above the 20-day moving average and is maintaining an uptrend just below the 10-day moving average. Therefore, we need to be cautious about whether the US dollar will weaken following today’s US employment report.
Despite the fact that Germany’s October employment statistics, released yesterday, showed the unemployment rate worsening by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s 5.7% to 5.8%, the euro rose against the yen.The EUR/JPY pair rose from 159.070 to 160.063. The rebound from the daily 20-day moving average (MA) continues. As the euro is showing strength against both the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar in terms of currency strength, we should watch for further upside potential during European trading hours.
Today’s schedule includes India’s Services PMI and Singapore’s Retail Sales at 2:00 PM, Germany’s Trade Balance at 4:00 PM, Turkey’s Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index at 4:00 PM, and France’sIndustrial Production, UK Services PMI at 6:30 PM, Eurozone Employment Data at 7:00 PM, remarks by Fed Chair Barre at 9:00 PM, remarks by MPC member Pill at 9:15 PM, US Employment Data and Canadian Employment Data at 9:30 PM,U.S. PMI at 10:45 PM, U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 11:00 PM, and remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Kashkari at 1:45 AM. We need to watch closely to see if the U.S. employment report will confirm a weakening of the U.S. dollar.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
