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Will the U.S. employment report signal a clear weakening of the U.S. dollar? Caution is advised.

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Will the U.S. employment report signal a clear weakening of the U.S. dollar? Caution is advised.

03.11.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Employment Report
  2. France: Industrial Production

In yesterday’s U.S. currency markets, the dollar became the weakest currency as the market digested the FOMC announcement. The USD/JPY pair fell from 150.944, breaking below the key 150-yen level to reach 149.833. It briefly dipped below the 200-period SMA on the hourly chart.On the higher-time-frame 4-hour chart, the pair has broken below the 20-period moving average (MA), indicating that the uptrend has ended. On the daily chart, the pair remains above the 20-period MA and is maintaining an uptrend just below the 10-period MA; therefore, we should remain vigilant to see if the U.S. dollar weakens following today’s U.S. employment report.

Despite the fact that Germany’s October employment statistics, released yesterday, showed the unemployment rate worsening by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s 5.7% to 5.8%, the euro rose against the yen.The euro/yen pair rose from 159.070 to 160.063. The rebound from the daily 20-day moving average (MA) continues. Since the euro is showing strength against both the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar in terms of currency strength, we should keep an eye on its upside potential during European trading hours.

Today’s schedule includes India’s Services PMI and Singapore’s retail sales at 14:00; Germany’s trade balance at 16:00; Turkey’s Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index at 16:00; and France’sIndustrial Production, at 18:30 UK Services PMI, at 19:00 Eurozone Employment Statistics, at 21:00 remarks by Fed Chair Bar, at 21:15 remarks by MPC Member Pill, at 21:30 U.S. Employment Report,Canada’s employment report at 22:45, U.S. PMI at 22:45, U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 23:00, and remarks by Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, at 25:45. We should remain vigilant to see if the U.S. employment report will lead to a clear weakening of the U.S. dollar.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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