Concerns over sharp fluctuations in the euro following remarks by ECB President Lagarde

Concerns over sharp fluctuations in the euro following remarks by ECB President Lagarde

26.10.2023

In the previous day's U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar was the strongest, rising against the euro during U.S. trading hours.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0606 to 1.0560, breaking below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD’s rebound up to the 75-period moving average (MA) on the daily chart was negated, and the pair reverted to a bearish candlestick with an upper shadow on the weekly chart. Therefore, we need to carefully assess whether the US dollar’s momentum will continue during European trading hours, causing the euro to decline.

European currencies saw the euro’s decline against the yen ease after Germany’s October IFO Business Climate Index, released yesterday, improved to 86.9 from 85.7 the previous month.The EUR/JPY pair traded in a range between 158.395 and 158.933, searching for direction, with the 200-period EMA on the hourly chart providing support on the downside. The ECB meeting is scheduled for today, and the policy rate is expected to remain unchanged. We will monitor the situation closely to see if ECB President Lagarde’s remarks trigger any sharp fluctuations in the euro.

Today’s schedule includes Hong Kong’s trade balance at 5:30 PM, South Africa’s producer price index at 6:30 PM, Israel’s trade balance at 7:00 PM, Turkey’s TCMB policy rate and statement at 8:00 PM, the ECB’s policy rate and statement at 9:15 PM, U.S. initial jobless claims and third-quarter GDP at 9:30 PM,U.S. Wholesale Inventories, U.S. Durable Goods Orders, 9:45 PM: ECB President Lagarde’s press conference, 10:00 PM: U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Waller’s remarks, 11:00 PM: U.S. Existing Home Sales, and 3:00 AM: U.S. 7-Year Treasury Auction. We must remain highly vigilant for sharp fluctuations in the euro following ECB President Lagarde’s remarks.

Past Market Reports

1. 21.04.2026New

   With the euro-Australian dollar pair hitting new lows this month, attention is turning to how much further it might fall

2. 20.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

3. 17.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

4. 16.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

5. 15.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

6. 14.04.2026

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

7. 13.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

8. 10.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

9. 09.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

10. 08.04.2026

    Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran