Market participants may be on alert for sharp fluctuations in the euro following remarks by ECB President Lagarde
26.10.2023
- ECB Policy Rate and Statement Release
- Remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Waller
In the previous day's U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar was the strongest, rising against the euro.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0606 to 1.0560, breaking below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD’s rebound up to the 75-period moving average (MA) on the daily chart was negated, and the pair reverted to a bearish candlestick with an upper shadow on the weekly chart. Therefore, we need to carefully assess whether the US dollar’s momentum will continue during European trading hours, causing the euro to decline.
The euro’s decline against the yen slowed after Germany’s October IFO Business Climate Index, released yesterday, improved to 86.9 from 85.7 the previous month.The EUR/JPY pair traded in a range between 158.395 and 158.933, searching for direction, with the 200-period EMA on the hourly chart providing support on the downside. The ECB meeting is scheduled for today, and the policy rate is expected to remain unchanged. We will monitor the situation closely to see if ECB President Lagarde’s remarks trigger any sharp fluctuations in the euro.
Today’s schedule includes Hong Kong’s trade balance at 5:30 PM, South Africa’s producer price index at 6:30 PM, Israel’s trade balance at 7:00 PM, Turkey’s TCMB policy rate and statement at 8:00 PM, the ECB’s policy rate and statement at 9:15 PM, U.S. initial jobless claims and third-quarter GDP at 9:30 PM,U.S. Wholesale Inventories, U.S. Durable Goods Orders, 9:45 PM: ECB President Lagarde’s press conference, 10:00 PM: U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Waller’s remarks, 11:00 PM: U.S. Existing Home Sales, and 3:00 AM: U.S. 7-Year Treasury Auction. We must remain highly vigilant for sharp fluctuations in the euro caused by ECB President Lagarde’s remarks at the ECB meeting.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
