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Concerns Over Sharp Fluctuations in the Euro Following ECB President Lagarde’s Remarks at the ECB

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Concerns Over Sharp Fluctuations in the Euro Following Remarks by ECB President Lagarde

26.10.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Europe: ECB Policy Rate and Statement Release
  2. Remarks by Federal Reserve Board Member Waller

In U.S. currency trading the previous day, the U.S. dollar was the strongest, rising against the euro. The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0606 to 1.0560, breaking below the 200-period SMA on the hourly chart.From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair’s rebound up to the daily 75-day moving average was offset, and the pair reverted to a weekly candlestick with an upper shadow. Therefore, we need to carefully assess whether the U.S. dollar’s momentum will continue during European trading hours, causing the euro to decline.

The euro’s decline against the yen slowed after Germany’s October IFO Business Climate Index, released yesterday, improved to 86.9 from 85.7 the previous month.The EUR/JPY pair traded in a range between 158.395 and 158.933, searching for direction, with the 200-period EMA on the hourly chart providing support on the downside. The ECB is scheduled to meet today, and the policy rate is expected to remain unchanged.We will wait and see cautiously whether ECB President Lagarde’s remarks will trigger sharp fluctuations in the euro.

Today, Hong Kong’s trade balance will be released at 17:30, South Africa’s producer price index at 18:30, Israel’s trade balance at 19:00,at 8:00 PM, Turkey’s TCMB policy rate and statement; at 9:15 PM, the Eurozone’s ECB policy rate and statement; at 9:30 PM, U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. third-quarter GDP, and U.S. wholesale inventories;U.S. Durable Goods Orders; at 21:45, the ECB’s President Lagarde will hold a press conference; at 22:00, Fed Governor Waller will deliver remarks; at 23:00, U.S. Existing Home Sales will be released; and at 27:00, a U.S. 7-year Treasury auction is scheduled.We must remain highly vigilant for sharp fluctuations in the euro caused by remarks from ECB President Lagarde at the ECB meeting.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

Previous Article

Will the euro continue to weaken ahead of the ECB meeting? Market participants are cautiously watching for signs of a trend.

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Will the market wait and see how the euro moves following the ECB’s decision to keep rates unchanged?
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