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Will the euro continue to weaken ahead of the ECB meeting? Market participants are cautiously watching for signs of a trend.

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Will the euro continue to weaken ahead of the ECB meeting? Market participants are cautiously watching for signs of a trend.

25.10.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Remarks by ECB President Lagarde
  2. U.S. New Home Sales

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rebounded against the yen after the October U.S. PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) released yesterday showed improvements in both the manufacturing and services sectors compared to the previous reading, with both sectors exceeding the benchmark of 50.The USD/JPY pair rose from 149.322 to 149.927. Although it had been trading below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart, yesterday’s rebound pushed it back above the 200-period SMA. While range-bound trading is expected until next week’s FOMC meeting, we will be watching closely to see if the USD/JPY pair moves during U.S. trading hours.

European currencies saw the euro fall sharply against the yen after yesterday’s release of German manufacturing and services PMIs, which both deteriorated from the previous month. The euro/yen pair fell by about 1.4 yen, from 159.916 to 158.533.It broke well below the 20-period moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart. However, on the higher-time-frame daily chart, it remains above the 10-period MA, and with the daily RSI hovering around 54, we will be watching the euro’s price action ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting.

Today, at 16:00, Turkey’s capacity utilization rate; at 17:00, Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index and the Eurozone’s money supply; at 20:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index;at 9:00 PM, Brazil’s Consumer Confidence Index; at 11:00 PM, Canada’s BOC policy rate and statement, and U.S. New Home Sales; at 11:30 PM, U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories; at 12:00 AM, remarks by BOC Governor Maclean; at 1:00 AM, Russia’sIndustrial Production at 26:00, U.S. 5-Year Treasury Auction at 26:00, and remarks by ECB President Lagarde in Europe. I want to carefully assess the direction of the euro, which has been weakening ahead of the ECB meeting.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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