Will the euro weaken ahead of the ECB meeting? Market participants are closely watching for signs of a trend.

Will the euro weaken ahead of the ECB meeting? Market participants are closely watching for signs of a trend.

25.10.2023

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rebounded against the yen after the October U.S. PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) released yesterday showed improvements in both the manufacturing and services sectors compared to the previous reading, with both sectors exceeding the benchmark of 50.The USD/JPY pair rose from 149.322 to 149.927. Although it had been trading below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart, yesterday’s rebound pushed it back above the 200-day SMA. While limited movement is expected until next week’s FOMC meeting, we will be watching closely to see if the USD/JPY pair moves during U.S. trading hours.

European currencies fell sharply against the yen after yesterday’s release of German manufacturing and services PMI data showed a deterioration in both sectors compared to the previous month.The EUR/JPY pair fell by approximately 1.4 yen, from 159.916 to 158.533. It broke well below the 20-period moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart. However, on the higher-timeframe daily chart, it remains above the 10-period MA, and the daily RSI is hovering around 54. Therefore, we will be watching the euro’s price action ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting.

Today’s schedule includes: Turkey’s capacity utilization rate at 4:00 PM, Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index and Eurozone money supply at 5:00 PM, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 8:00 PM, Brazil’s Consumer Confidence Index at 9:00 PM, the Bank of Canada’s policy rate decision and statement, along with U.S. new home sales, at 11:00 PM, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories at 11:30 PM,at 12:00 AM, remarks by BOC Governor Macklem; at 1:00 AM, Russian industrial production; at 2:00 AM, the U.S. 5-year Treasury auction; and at 3:00 AM, remarks by ECB President Lagarde. We will carefully monitor the market direction to see if the euro continues to weaken ahead of the ECB meeting.

Past Market Reports

1. 21.04.2026New

   With the euro-Australian dollar pair hitting new lows this month, attention is turning to how much further it might fall

2. 20.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

3. 17.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

4. 16.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

5. 15.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

6. 14.04.2026

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

7. 13.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

8. 10.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

9. 09.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

10. 08.04.2026

    Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran