Concerns over the downward trend in the euro-dollar exchange rate as the post-ECB rally runs out of steam

Concerns over the downward trend in the euro-dollar exchange rate as the post-ECB rally runs out of steam

15.09.2023

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen immediately after the release of the U.S. August Producer Price Index, which came in at 1.6% year-over-year—up from 0.8% the previous month. The USD/JPY pair rose from 147.007 to 147.554. However, the rally did not hold, and the pair eventually fell back to 147.011.On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY is showing trendless movement straddling the 20-day moving average, so we will wait and see how prices move ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) raising its policy rate by 0.25% at its meeting announced yesterday, the euro became the weakest currency as economic growth forecasts for next year and beyond were revised downward.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0751 to 1.0631. A sharp decline was observed from just below the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart down to the -3σ line of the Bollinger Bands. We will keep a close eye on whether the euro’s decline continues, while comparing its relative strength against other currencies.

Today’s schedule includes Norway’s trade balance at 3:00 PM, France’s consumer price index at 3:45 PM, the Eurozone’s trade balance at 6:00 PM, a press conference by ECB President Lagarde at 6:45 PM, Israel’s consumer price index at 8:00 PM, Brazil’s retail sales at 9:00 PM,at 9:30 PM, U.S. import and export price indices, Canadian manufacturing sales, and the U.S. NY Fed Manufacturing Index; at 10:15 PM, U.S. industrial production; and at 11:00 PM, the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. We must remain highly vigilant regarding the downside potential of the EUR/USD pair, as the recent rebound has paused.

Past Market Reports

1. 21.04.2026New

   With the euro-Australian dollar pair hitting new lows this month, attention is turning to how much further it might fall

2. 20.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

3. 17.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

4. 16.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

5. 15.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

6. 14.04.2026

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

7. 13.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

8. 10.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

9. 09.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

10. 08.04.2026

    Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran