All eyes are on whether the ECB will raise interest rates and whether the euro will rise as a result.

All eyes are on whether the ECB will raise interest rates and whether the euro will rise as a result.

14.09.2023

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the upside for the U.S. dollar was limited as the U.S. August core CPI, released yesterday, moderated to 4.3% year-over-year from 4.7%. The EUR/USD pair fell slightly from 1.0764 to 1.0710.However, the downward momentum did not persist, and the pair rebounded to 1.0749. The market remained trendless. During today’s Asian session, the price is hovering around the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, and the Bollinger Band baseline remains parallel; therefore, we will be watching price movements closely during the European session.

Ahead of today’s ECB policy rate announcement, the euro traded in a narrow range against the yen. The EUR/JPY pair moved without a clear direction between 158.652 and 158.001, continuing to trade sideways around the 20-day moving average.Although a 0.25% rate hike is expected at today’s ECB meeting, we will be watching closely to see if the euro will rise in line with market expectations.

Today, at 3:00 p.m., Sweden’s Consumer Price Index will be released; at 3:30 p.m., Switzerland’s Producer Import Price Index and India’s Wholesale Price Index will be released; at 7:00 p.m., Israel’s Current Account Balance will be released;at 9:15 PM, the ECB’s policy rate and statement; at 9:30 PM, Canada’s wholesale sales and U.S. retail sales;U.S. Producer Price Index and U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, at 9:45 p.m. a press conference by ECB President Lagarde, at 11:00 p.m. U.S. Business Inventories, and at 11:30 p.m. U.S. Weekly Natural Gas Storage data.I want to closely monitor the market to see if the ECB will raise rates and cause the euro to rise.