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Should We Be Wary of the Ongoing Yen Weakness, Which Shows No Signs of Slowing Despite Declines in PMI Indices Across Various Countries?

Market Report

Should We Be Wary of the Ongoing Yen Weakness, Which Shows No Signs of Slowing Despite Declines in PMI Indices Across Various Countries?

26.06.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Remarks by Dingla, a Member of the MPC in the UK
  2. U.S. 2-Year Treasury Auction

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen despite the fact that the U.S. PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) figures released on the 23rd fell below the previous readings for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The USD/JPY pair rose from 142.675 to 143.862.The low 142-yen range, which had been viewed as resistance, turned into support, providing momentum for the upward move. During today’s Asian trading session, USD/JPY has been trading in the mid-143-yen range without a clear direction. We will wait and see cautiously to see if trading activity picks up during U.S. trading hours.

Despite the fact that the preliminary UK PMI figures released last weekend on the 23rd fell below the previous readings for both the manufacturing and services sectors, the pound rose against the yen. Although the GBP/JPY pair fell immediately after the PMI release, it regained momentum during U.S. trading hours, rising from 181.278 to 182.926.This marked a new high for the year. During today’s Asian trading session, despite opening with a gap down of about 40 pips, the GBP/JPY pair has been trading in a manner that suggests it is attempting to close the gap and continue its upward movement. It will be worth watching to see if the pound continues to gain ground during European trading hours.

Today’s schedule includes Taiwan’s industrial production at 5:00 p.m., Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index, remarks by UK MPC member Dingla at 5:15 p.m., remarks by Swiss SNB Governor Jordan at 5:50 p.m., and at 7:00 p.m., the UK’sCBI Retail Trade Survey at 7:00 p.m., Mexico’s Economic Activity Index at 9:00 p.m., remarks by SNB Board Member Mecler of Switzerland at 11:25 p.m., the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 11:30 p.m., a U.S. 6-month bill auction at 12:30 a.m.,2:00 a.m. U.S. 2-year Treasury auction, and 2:30 a.m. European Central Bank President Lagarde’s remarks. We must remain highly vigilant regarding the ongoing yen depreciation trend, which continues undeterred by declines in national PMIs.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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