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Should We Keep an Eye on the Upside Potential for the Euro/Yen Pair, Which Has Reached Levels Not Seen Since the Lehman Shock?

Market Report

Should We Keep an Eye on the Upside Potential for the Euro/Yen Pair, Which Has Reached Levels Not Seen Since the Lehman Shock?

Today's Highlights
  1. UK Retail Sales
  2. European Manufacturing/Services PMI

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen after the U.S. May existing home sales figure, released yesterday, came in at 4.3 million—exceeding the market forecast of 4.2 million. The USD/JPY pair rose by just under 170 pips, from 141.162 to 143.238.Combined with hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Powell—which followed those made the day before yesterday—the pair hit a new high for the year. During today’s Asian trading session, USD/JPY has touched 143.407. We will be closely monitoring the market to see if this upward trend continues.

European currencies rose against the yen as the Eurozone’s June consumer confidence index, released yesterday, improved to -16.1 from the previous reading of -17.4. The euro/yen pair rose by approximately 130 pips, from 155.595 to 156.930.This marks a rise to levels not seen since September 2008. While the RSI on the 4-hour chart has exceeded 70 and shows signs of divergence, the RSI on the weekly chart has not yet reached its recent high of 78, leaving some room to maneuver. Therefore, it will be important to monitor whether the upward momentum continues during U.S. trading hours.

Today’s highlights include UK retail sales at 15:00, Turkey’s trade balance at 16:00,Turkey’s Economic Confidence, remarks by ECB President Lagarde, France’s Manufacturing/Services PMI at 16:15, Germany’s Manufacturing/Services PMI at 16:30, the Eurozone’s Manufacturing/Services PMI at 17:00, the UK’smanufacturing/services PMI at 17:30, remarks by U.S. St. Louis Fed President Bullard at 18:15, U.S. manufacturing/services PMI at 22:45, and remarks by U.S. Cleveland Fed President Mester at 26:40.We will be watching for upside potential in the euro/yen pair, which has reached levels not seen since the Lehman Shock.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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