Should we watch for a rise in the euro following the policy rate hike to 4.00%?
16.06.2023
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary)
- Remarks by Nagel, President of the German Federal Bank
In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the dollar fluctuated against the yen as the June New York Fed Manufacturing Index, released yesterday, came in at 6.6—significantly higher than the market forecast of -15.6—while the June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, released at the same time, came in at -13.7, worse than the market forecast of -12.3.The USD/JPY pair touched 141.503 before plunging. During today’s Asian trading session, it has been trading around 140.598. We need to remain vigilant to see if the US dollar’s momentum will continue to lose steam.
European currencies surged against the U.S. dollar, led by the euro, which rose sharply after the ECB raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.00% yesterday, in line with market consensus.The EUR/USD pair rose by approximately 150 pips to a range of 1.0804–1.0952. This surge took the pair from the centerline of the daily Bollinger Bands to the +3σ level. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has exceeded 70, so traders should be cautious of a corrective decline.
Today’s schedule includes a press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda at 3:30 p.m., remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel and U.S. St. Louis Fed President Bullard at 4:00 p.m., and at 6:00 p.m., the EurozoneConsumer Price Index, at 8:30 PM the Turkish Housing Price Index, at 8:45 PM remarks by US Federal Reserve Governor Waller, at 9:30 PM Canadian International Securities Turnover and Canadian Wholesale Sales, at 10:00 PM remarks by US Federal Reserve President Barkin of the Richmond Fed, and at 11:00 PM the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.Keep an eye on the euro’s rise following the policy rate hike to 4.00%.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
