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Should We Watch for a Rise in the Euro Following the Hike in the Policy Interest Rate to 4.00%?

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Should We Watch for a Rise in the Euro Following the Hike in the Policy Interest Rate to 4.00%?

16.06.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary Reading)
  2. Remarks by Nagel, President of the German Central Bank

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the New York Fed’s June Manufacturing Index, released yesterday, came in at 6.6—a significant improvement over the market forecast of -15.6—butthe U.S. June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, released at the same time, came in at -13.7—worse than the market forecast of -12.3—causing the U.S. dollar to fluctuate against the yen. The USD/JPY pair touched 141.503 before plummeting.During today’s Asian trading session, it has been trading around 140.598. We need to remain vigilant to see if the U.S. dollar’s momentum will continue to lose steam.

Among European currencies, the euro surged against the U.S. dollar after the ECB announced yesterday that it had raised its policy rate by 0.25 points to 4.00%, in line with market consensus.The EUR/USD pair rose by approximately 150 pips to a range of 1.0804–1.0952. This surge took the pair from the centerline of the daily Bollinger Bands to the +3σ level. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has exceeded 70, so traders should be on the lookout for a corrective pullback.

Today’s schedule includes a press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda at 15:30, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel at 16:00, and remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Brade:St. Louis Fed President, at 6:00 p.m. the EU Consumer Price Index, at 8:30 p.m. the Turkish Housing Price Index, at 8:45 p.m. remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Waller, at 9:30 p.m. Canadian International Securities Turnover and Canadian Wholesale Sales,at 10:00 PM, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Barkin; and at 11:00 PM, the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Keep an eye on the euro’s rise following the policy rate hike to 4.00%.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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