Should we watch for a rise in the euro following the policy rate hike to 4.00%?

Should we watch for a rise in the euro following the policy rate hike to 4.00%?

16.06.2023

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar fluctuated against the yen as the June New York Fed Manufacturing Index, released yesterday, came in at 6.6—a significant improvement over the market forecast of -15.6—while the June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, released at the same time, came in at -13.7, worse than the market forecast of -12.3.The USD/JPY pair touched 141.503 before plunging. During today’s Asian session, it has been trading around 140.598. We need to remain vigilant to see if the dollar’s momentum will continue to lose steam.

European currencies surged against the U.S. dollar, led by the euro, which rose sharply after the ECB raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.00% yesterday, in line with market consensus.The EUR/USD pair rose by approximately 150 pips to a range of 1.0804–1.0952. This surge took the pair from the centerline of the daily Bollinger Bands to the +3σ level. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has exceeded 70, so traders should be cautious of a corrective pullback.

Today’s schedule includes a press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda at 3:30 p.m., remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel and U.S. St. Louis Fed President Bullard at 4:00 p.m., and at 6:00 p.m., the Eurozonethe Consumer Price Index, at 8:30 PM the Turkish Housing Price Index, at 8:45 PM remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Waller, at 9:30 PM Canadian International Securities Turnover and Canadian Wholesale Sales, at 10:00 PM remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Barkin, and at 11:00 PM the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.Keep an eye on the euro’s rise following the policy rate hike to 4.00%.

Past Market Reports

1. 21.04.2026New

   With the euro-Australian dollar pair hitting new lows this month, attention is turning to how much further it might fall

2. 20.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

3. 17.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

4. 16.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

5. 15.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

6. 14.04.2026

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

7. 13.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

8. 10.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

9. 09.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

10. 08.04.2026

    Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran