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Should We Wait and See Where the Euro/Yen Is Headed Amid the Sharp Weakening of the Yen?

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Should We Wait and See Where the Euro/Yen Is Headed Amid the Sharp Weakening of the Yen?

15.06.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Europe: ECB Policy Rate and Statement Release
  2. Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, although the FOMC announced that it would keep the policy rate unchanged, the terminal rate was raised to the 5.6% level, causing the U.S. dollar to fluctuate against the Australian dollar.The AUD/USD pair fluctuated wildly between 0.6755 and 0.6835, briefly dipping below the 75-period moving average on the hourly chart.At yesterday’s FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Powell explicitly stated, “We are fully committed to bringing inflation back to 2%.” We will be watching closely to see if the U.S. dollar strengthens against Oceania currencies.

Among European currencies, the euro rose against the yen ahead of today’s ECB policy rate announcement. With the foreign exchange market generally trending toward a weaker yen, the euro/yen pair rose from 150.909 to 152.875, hitting a new high for the year.With today’s rise, the euro/yen pair has reached its highest level since September 2008. We will be watching closely to see if the trend of yen weakness continues.

Today’s economic indicators include Swiss producer import prices at 15:30, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel at 16:00, Canadian housing starts and the ECB’s policy rate announcement and statement at 21:15, Canadian manufacturing shipments at 21:30,U.S. Retail Sales, U.S. NY Fed Manufacturing Index, U.S. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index; at 21:45, a press conference by ECB President Lagarde; at 22:00, Canadian Existing Home Sales; at 22:15, U.S.Industrial Production, U.S. Capacity Utilization, U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories at 23:30, and remarks by Bank of England Deputy Governor Kanrif at 24:35. Amid a general trend of yen weakness, I want to carefully assess the direction of the rising EUR/JPY pair.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets, and he also has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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