Should we wait and see where the euro/yen pair is headed amid the sharp depreciation of the yen?
15.06.2023
- ECB Policy Rate and Statement Release
- Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index
In the previous day’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar fluctuated against the Australian dollar despite the FOMC announcing that it would keep the policy rate unchanged, as the terminal rate was raised to the 5.6% level.The AUD/USD pair fluctuated wildly between 0.6755 and 0.6835, briefly dipping below the 75-period moving average on the hourly chart. At yesterday’s FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Powell explicitly stated, “We are fully committed to our 2% inflation target.” We will be watching closely to see if the U.S. dollar strengthens against the Oceania currencies.
Among European currencies, the euro rose against the yen ahead of today’s ECB policy rate announcement. With the foreign exchange market generally trending toward a weaker yen, the euro/yen pair rose from 150.909 to 152.875, hitting a new high for the year. Today’s rise has pushed the euro/yen pair to its highest level since September 2008. We will be watching closely to see if this trend toward a weaker yen continues.
Today’s economic indicators include Swiss producer import prices at 3:30 p.m., remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel at 4:00 p.m., Canadian housing starts at 9:15 p.m., the ECB’s policy rate decision and statement at 9:15 p.m., Canadian manufacturing shipments, U.S. retail sales, the U.S. New York Fed Manufacturing Index, and the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index at 9:30 p.m.,21:45: ECB President Lagarde’s press conference; 22:00: Canada’s existing home sales; 22:15: U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization; 23:30: U.S. weekly crude oil inventories; 24:35: Remarks by Bank of England Deputy Governor Canrif. Amid a general trend of yen weakness, I want to carefully assess the direction of the rising EUR/JPY pair.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
