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Should We Keep a Close Eye on the U.S. Dollar's Movements Ahead of the U.S. CPI Release?

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Should We Keep a Close Eye on the U.S. Dollar's Movements Ahead of the U.S. CPI Release?

12.06.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Fiscal Balance
  2. Remarks by a Member of the PC Committee in Manchester, England

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar rose against the euro. The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0785 to 1.0732, breaking below the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair continues to decline during today’s Asian trading session, with the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart acting as resistance. We will need to monitor the situation closely to see if the euro recovers during European trading hours.

Among European currencies, the pound rose against the yen.GBP/JPY rose from 174.278 to 175.542, hitting a new high for the year. While GBP/JPY is in a strong uptrend along the daily 10-day moving average (MA), the daily RSI has exceeded 70, indicating a divergence. Therefore, we should remain cautious about the direction of the market and watch for a potential pullback as the market consolidates.

Today’s schedule includes Turkey’s current account balance and unemployment rate at 16:00 European time, India’s Consumer Price Index at 21:00, remarks by a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee at 23:00 U.S. time, a U.S. 3-year Treasury auction at 24:30,at 26:00, a U.S. 10-year Treasury auction, and at 27:00, the U.S. budget balance. Although there are no major economic indicators scheduled for release today, with the U.S. CPI tomorrow and the FOMC meeting the day after tomorrow on the horizon, we should remain vigilant for sudden spikes in volatility ahead of these key events.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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