Should we keep a close eye on the U.S. dollar's movements ahead of the U.S. CPI release?
12.06.2023
- U.S. Fiscal Balance
- Remarks by a member of the UK Manchester PC Committee
In the U.S. currency markets last weekend, the U.S. dollar rose against the euro. The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0785 to 1.0732, breaking below the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair has continued to decline during today’s Asian trading session, with the 20-period moving average acting as resistance. We will be closely monitoring the situation to see if the euro can recover during European trading hours.
Among European currencies, the pound rose against the yen. The GBP/JPY pair climbed from 174.278 to 175.542, hitting a new high for the year. While the pair is in a strong uptrend along the daily 10-day moving average, the daily RSI has exceeded 70, indicating a divergence. Therefore, we should remain cautious regarding the direction of the market and watch for a potential pullback as the market consolidates.
Today’s schedule includes Turkey’s current account balance and unemployment rate at 4:00 PM European time, India’s Consumer Price Index at 9:00 PM, a speech by a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee at 11:00 PM U.S. time, a U.S. 3-year Treasury auction at 12:30 AM, a U.S. 10-year Treasury auction at 2:00 AM, and the U.S. budget balance at 3:00 AM.Although there are no major economic releases scheduled for today, with the U.S. CPI tomorrow and the FOMC meeting the day after tomorrow on the horizon, we should remain vigilant for sudden spikes in volatility ahead of these key events.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
