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Concerns Over Further Declines in the U.S. Dollar Against the Euro

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Concerns Over Further Declines in the U.S. Dollar Against the Euro

27.04.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. First-Quarter GDP
  2. U.S. Core PCE Deflator

In U.S. currency trading the previous day, the U.S. dollar fell against the euro after the MBA Mortgage Applications Index, released yesterday, rose to 3.7% from the previous reading of -8.8%. The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0968 to 1.1094. The rebound was supported by the 75-period moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart.On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair continues to follow a solid uptrend along the 20-day moving average, and since no RSI divergence has been observed, we should watch for further gains during European trading hours.

European currencies rose against the yen, as the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index, released yesterday, rebounded to -25.7 from -29.5 the previous month.The euro/yen pair rose from 146.454 to 147.881. It rebounded after touching the 75-period moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart. The euro/yen is in the process of forming a triple top on the 4-hour chart, and the RSI is showing divergence. Therefore, traders should be wary of a pullback during U.S. trading hours.

Today’s schedule includes Turkey’s Economic Confidence Index at 16:00, the TCMB policy rate and statement at 20:00, U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. first-quarter GDP, and U.S. personal consumption at 21:30,U.S. Core PCE Deflator at 21:30, U.S. Pending Home Sales at 23:00, U.S. Weekly Natural Gas Inventories at 23:30, U.S. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 24:00, and a U.S. 7-Year Treasury Auction at 26:00.We should remain cautious about the downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the euro.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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