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Should We Carefully Monitor the Upside Potential of the Pound, Now the Strongest Currency?

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Should We Carefully Monitor the Upside Potential of the Pound, Now That It Has Become the Strongest Currency?

15.02.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Remarks by ECB President Lagarde
  2. U.S. New York Fed Manufacturing Index

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the U.S. dollar rose after the January U.S. CPI came in higher than market expectations at 6.4% year-over-year. The AUD/USD pair fell from 0.7029 to 0.6921, pulling back after touching the +3σ line on the 4-hour Bollinger Bands.Since the start of this month, the AUD/USD pair has been trading in a range between 0.6868 and 0.7010, and on the daily chart, it is moving just below the 20-day moving average (20MA) while searching for direction. Therefore, traders should pay close attention to the strength or weakness of the pair as the week progresses.

Among European currencies, the pound rose against the yen after the fourth-quarter unemployment rate was released yesterday, coming in at 3.7%. The GBP/JPY pair rose from 160.114 to 162.160, following the 10-period moving average on the hourly chart. The 4-hour RSI reached 74.Although GBP/JPY is rising with the 4-hour RSI above 70, no RSI divergence has occurred, so we should keep an eye on whether the upward trend continues during European trading hours.

Today, at 16:00: UK Consumer Price Index, UK Retail Price Index, and UK Producer Price Index; at 17:00: South African Consumer Price Index; at 19:00: EurozoneIndustrial Production, and the Eurozone Trade Balance at 17:00; the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 21:00; Canadian Housing Starts at 22:15; the U.S. NY Fed Manufacturing Index and U.S. Retail Sales, as well as Canadian Wholesale Sales, at 22:30;at 23:00: Remarks by ECB President Lagarde, Canadian Existing Home Sales; at 23:15: U.S. Industrial Production; and at 27:00: U.S. 20-Year Treasury Auction. We will carefully monitor the upside potential of the pound, which has become the strongest currency.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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