It remains to be seen whether the falling dollar index will recover
14.02.2023
- U.S. Consumer Price Index
- Europe: Q4 GDP
In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the dollar fell as the Dollar Index, which had been rising, dropped to 103.1.The EUR/USD pair rebounded from this month’s low of 1.0655 to 1.0730, breaking above the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. However, on the 4-hour chart, the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) and exponential moving average (EMA) have formed a death cross, and on the daily chart, the price remains below the 20-period MA while the RSI is trending downward. Therefore, we should remain cautious as to whether the euro’s rebound will prove to be temporary.
Among European currencies, the pound made significant gains against the U.S. dollar. The GBP/USD pair rose from 1.2031 to 1.2149, reaching the upper end of a range that had persisted for a week. On the daily chart, GBP/USD has been trading within a range between 1.1961 and 1.2434. With upward pressure currently building toward the upper boundary of this range, it will be worth watching to see if the upward trend continues.
Today’s schedule includes the UK unemployment rate at 4:00 PM, Swiss producer import prices at 4:30 PM, Eurozone Q4 GDP at 7:00 PM, the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 8:00 PM, the US Consumer Price Index at 10:30 PM, remarks by US Richmond Fed President Barkin at 11:30 PM, and remarks by US Logan:Dallas Fed President remarks, 1:30 AM: US – Harker: Philadelphia Fed President remarks, 4:05 AM: US – Williams: NY Fed President remarks. Keep an eye on the economic data releases during US trading hours to see if the falling Dollar Index will recover.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
