Should we be on alert for fluctuations in the pound following the release of UK economic indicators?
12.12.2022
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury Auction
- UK GDP
Last weekend, U.S. currencies held firm on the downside following the release of the U.S. November PPI, with the euro/dollar falling by about 80 pips from 1.0587 to 1.0503.The U.S. November Producer Price Index (PPI), released on the 9th, came in at 7.4% year-over-year—exceeding market expectations of 7.1% despite falling from the previous reading of 8.0%. This led to a surge in the U.S. dollar on speculation that tomorrow’s scheduled U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release may be less likely to show a decline.
Among European currencies, the pound strengthened against the yen ahead of today’s GDP release. GBP/JPY rose by approximately 1.7 yen, from 166.258 to 168.056, hitting a new high for the month. Since GBP/JPY continues to trade with support from the 20-day moving average (MA) on the weekly chart, we intend to maintain a bullish outlook and monitor price movements until the pair breaks below the weekly 20-day MA.
Today, at 15:00 Asia time, Japan’s machine tool orders will be released; at 16:00 Europe time, the UK’s GDP, industrial production, and trade balance, along with Turkey’s unemployment rate and current account balance, will be released; and at 21:00, India’sIndustrial Production and India’s Consumer Price Index at 16:00 (Asia time); the US 3-year Treasury auction at 01:30 (US time), the US 10-year Treasury auction at 02:00, the US budget balance at 02:08, and remarks by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem at 02:25. With a series of economic indicators scheduled for release in the UK, we will be closely monitoring price movements to see if the pound experiences significant fluctuations.
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