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Will Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceed the previous reading of 7.6%?

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Will Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceed the previous reading of 7.6%?

28.07.2022

Today's Highlights
  1. Germany's Consumer Price Index
  2. U.S. Core PCE Deflator

On the previous day, U.S. currencies saw a “sell-the-fact” reaction after the FOMC meeting concluded without any surprises, and the GBP/USD pair rose by about 160 pips from 1.2021 to 1.2186.The Fed raised rates by 0.75% for the second consecutive meeting, resulting in a smooth FOMC meeting that aligned with market expectations.Furthermore, since GBP/USD has broken above the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart with a real body candle, if the upward trend continues, we should target the 75-period MA on the daily chart at 1.2341.

European currencies traded in a range against the yen, as the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index for August—released yesterday—came in below expectations at -30.6, while the pound and Swiss franc held steady.During today’s Asian trading session, a trend toward yen buying has emerged, causing the pair to fall by more than 150 pips from 139.493 to 137.915. Since EUR/JPY has already broken below the 75-day moving average, we will be watching closely to see if it breaks below the recent low of 136.864 and continues its downward move.

Today, the French Producer Price Index will be released at 15:45 during Asian trading hours, followed by the Turkish Economic Confidence Index at 16:00 during European trading hours, and at 21:00, the GermanConsumer Price Index, at 21:30 during U.S. trading hours: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Q2 GDP (flash estimate), U.S. Personal Income, U.S. Core PCE Deflator,at 23:30, U.S. weekly natural gas inventories; at 24:00, the U.S. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index; at 26:00, a U.S. 7-year Treasury auction; and after the U.S. market closes, earnings reports from Apple and Amazon are scheduled.We will be closely monitoring price movements to see if Germany’s CPI has peaked.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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All eyes are on whether the weakening euro will follow the U.S. dollar’s lead following the FOMC meeting

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Market participants are likely to keep a close eye on the Japanese yen, which is showing relative strength amid the weakness of Western currencies.
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