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Should We Be Wary of a Correction Ahead of the FOMC Meeting?

Market Report

Should We Be Wary of a Correction Ahead of the FOMC Meeting?

Today's Highlights
  1. Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index
  2. U.S. Weekly Natural Gas Inventories

In the previous day’s U.S. currency trading, the USD/JPY traded in a range of approximately 60 pips between 137.906 and 138.458, influenced by the Dollar Index, which had fallen to the low 106s.During today’s Asian session, the Bank of Japan announced its policy interest rate, and the pair has been fluctuating wildly within a range similar to yesterday’s. On the daily chart, a divergence is visible where the candlestick pattern and the RSI are moving in opposite directions, so we should be wary of a corrective decline ahead of the FOMC meeting.

European currencies are trading nervously ahead of today’s ECB policy rate announcement, with the euro/dollar pair falling approximately 110 pips from 1.0270 to 1.0156. However, it has regained momentum during today’s Asian trading session and has broken above the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.Although the pair is currently trading above the 75-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, we will be watching closely to see if the upward trend continues.

Today’s economic indicators include remarks by UK MPC member Pill at 17:00, the announcement of the Turkish CBRT’s policy rate and statement at 20:00, the announcement of the ECB’s policy rate and statement at 21:15, U.S. initial jobless claims at 21:30,U.S. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, a press conference by ECB President Lagarde at 21:45, the U.S. Leading Economic Index at 23:00, and U.S. weekly natural gas inventories at 23:30. We need to remain vigilant to see if this will create conditions for the Japanese yen to come under selling pressure again.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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