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Caution Over the Euro's Decline Amid Weakening PMI Data?

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Caution Over the Euro's Decline Amid Weakening PMI Data?

24.06.2022

Today's Highlights
  1. Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index
  2. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Yesterday, the U.S. dollar faced resistance due to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, causing it to fall against the yen and the pound. The USD/JPY pair fell by about 2 yen, from 136.171 to 134.265, breaking below the 200-period SMA support on the hourly chart.During today’s Asian session, the pair has been consolidating around the 134.739 level. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI is falling toward 30, so we will be watching price action starting in the European session to see if the decline continues.

European currencies weakened more than the U.S. dollar, plummeting following yesterday’s PMI releases. The euro/dollar pair fell approximately 100 pips from 1.0580 to 1.0483.Yesterday’s PMI releases showed declines from the previous readings in Germany, the eurozone, and the UK. However, since the EUR/USD pair has entered a trading range on the 4-hour chart—with a lower bound of 1.0466 and an upper bound of 1.0606—it seems prudent to adopt a wait-and-see approach for the time being.

Today’s schedule includes UK retail sales at 15:00 during Asian trading hours; Turkey’s Economic Sentiment Index and Capacity Utilization at 16:00 during European trading hours; Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index at 17:00; remarks by RBA Governor Lowe at 20:30; and remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve’s Brade:St. Louis Fed President, at 22:30 U.S. time, remarks by UK MPC member Pill, at 22:45 remarks by UK MPC member Haskell, at 23:00 the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and U.S. new home sales.We should keep a close eye on the euro, which is falling due to deteriorating PMI data.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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