Should we focus on the correlation between the euro and the U.S. dollar now that the balance of power has shifted?

Should we focus on the correlation between the euro and the U.S. dollar now that the balance of power has shifted?

30.03.2022

In the previous day’s trading, the U.S. dollar faced resistance due to falling yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries, causing the euro to surge against the dollar from 1.096 to 1.113. The U.S. March Consumer Confidence Index, released yesterday, came in at 107.2, exceeding the market forecast of 107.0 and marking the first increase in three months; however, the dollar’s upward momentum failed to hold.

European currencies rose as ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine made progress, particularly after Russia announced it would "scale back military operations in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and the Chernihiv region." While the USD/JPY pair fell by about 2.3 yen, the EUR/JPY pair’s decline was limited to 1.9 yen. The EUR/JPY pair is currently trading around 135.22 and is struggling to hold above the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart.

Today’s schedule includes the Swiss KOF Leading Index at 4:00 p.m. CET, remarks by ECB President Lagarde at 5:00 p.m. CET, remarks by BOE Deputy Governor Broadbent at 5:10 p.m. CET, and the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 8:00 p.m. CET. Once U.S. trading hours begin, the German Consumer Price Index (flash estimate) is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. CET,followed by the U.S. ADP National Employment Report at 21:15, U.S. Q4 GDP, U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures, and U.S. Core PCE Deflator at 21:30, remarks by U.S. Richmond Fed President Barkin at 22:15, and U.S. weekly crude oil inventories at 23:30. We will be watching the strength and weakness of the rebounding euro and the retreating U.S. dollar.

Past Market Reports

1. 22.04.2026New

   Will interest grow in the upside potential of the Swiss franc, which has risen against the yen?

2. 21.04.2026New

   With the euro-Australian dollar pair hitting new lows this month, attention is turning to how much further it might fall

3. 20.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

4. 17.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

5. 16.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

6. 15.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

7. 14.04.2026

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

8. 13.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

9. 10.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

10. 09.04.2026

    Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?