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Should We Focus on the Correlation Between the Euro and the U.S. Dollar as the Balance of Power Shifts?

Market Report

Should We Focus on the Correlation Between the Euro and the U.S. Dollar as the Balance of Power Shifts?

Today's Highlights
  1. Germany: Consumer Price Index (Preliminary Figures)
  2. U.S. Core PCE Deflator

In the previous day’s U.S. currency trading, the market faced resistance due to a decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, causing the euro to surge against the dollar from 1.096 to 1.113.The U.S. March Consumer Confidence Index, released yesterday, came in at 107.2, exceeding the market forecast of 107.0 and marking the first increase in three months; however, the U.S. dollar’s upward momentum did not last.

European currencies rose as ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine made progress and Russia announced that it would “scale back military operations in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and the vicinity of Chernihiv.” While the USD/JPY fell by about 2.3 yen, the EUR/JPY fell by only 1.9 yen.The euro/yen pair is currently trading around 135.22 and is struggling on the brink of breaking below the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart.

Today’s schedule includes the Swiss KOF Leading Index at 16:00 European time, remarks by ECB President Lagarde at 17:00, remarks by UKremarks by BOE Deputy Governor Broadbent, at 20:00 the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index, and—once U.S. trading hours begin—at 21:00 the German Consumer Price Index (flash estimate), at 21:15 the U.S. ADP National Employment Report, at 21:30 U.S. Q4 GDP,U.S. personal consumption, and the U.S. core PCE deflator; at 22:15, remarks by U.S. Richmond Fed President Barkin; and at 23:30, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories. We will be watching the strength and weakness of the euro, which is rebounding, and the U.S. dollar, which is retreating.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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