Should We Keep an Eye on the Direction of Rising Oceania Currencies?
01.03.2022
- U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index
- Remarks by MPC Member Saunders of the UK
In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the AUD/USD pair surged as the Dollar Index fell slightly to 96.7, rising approximately 110 pips from 0.715 to 0.726.The AUD/USD pair is rising with momentum that brings it close to its recent high of 0.728 on the 4-hour chart, and since there is still room to reach the 200-day SMA on the daily chart, we will carefully assess whether this upward trend will continue while closely monitoring the situation in Ukraine.
European currencies are under pressure from the strengthening Australian dollar, causing the EUR/AUD pair to decline.The EUR/AUD pair has formed a large bearish candlestick, falling from 1.558 to 1.541. On the daily chart, the pair has been falling continuously without any pullbacks since the 7th of last month. If this downtrend continues, we need to carefully assess whether the pair will rebound at the support level near 1.536, which is the recent weekly low.
Today, during European trading hours, the Turkish Manufacturing PMI will be released at 16:00, followed by the Swiss Manufacturing PMI at 17:30, the UK Manufacturing PMI and mortgage approvals at 18:30, and at 22:00, the GermanConsumer Price Index (flash estimate), and during U.S. trading hours at 22:30, Canada’s GDP; at 23:45, the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, and U.S. Construction Spending; at 27:30, remarks by UK MPC Member Sanders; at 28:00, remarks by UKremarks by MPC member Mann, remarks by U.S. Atlanta Fed President Bostic, remarks by U.S. Cleveland Fed President Mester, and at 6:45 the following day, New Zealand housing construction permits are scheduled to be released. While keeping geopolitical risks in mind, we will be watching the movements of the rising Australian dollar closely.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
