Be on the lookout for sudden market movements at the end of the month amid geopolitical risks
28.02.2022
- Chicago Federal Reserve Purchasing Managers' Index
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index
Last weekend, following reports that Russia and Ukraine had entered into ceasefire negotiations, the USD/JPY pair surged during U.S. trading hours, rising from 115.15 to 115.75. However, the pair opened with a gap down of approximately 30 pips during today’s Asian session, and concerns about a potential decline remain unresolved.Technically, since USD/JPY is positioned just above the daily 20-day moving average (MA), it would be prudent to wait and see until the price breaks decisively above or below this level with a solid candle body.
European currencies are trading weakly, with the euro particularly under pressure due to the deteriorating situation in Ukraine; during today’s Asian session, the euro has been the weakest currency. The EUR/JPY pair opened with a significant gap down of approximately 200 pips, and as of now during the Asian session, the gap has yet to be filled. From a technical perspective, the EUR/JPY pair appears to be capped by the monthly downtrend line, so we will be watching closely to see if the gradual decline continues.
Today, at 4:00 PM: Turkey—4th Quarter GDP, Turkey—Trade Balance; at 4:30 PM: Switzerland—Retail Sales; at 5:00 PM: Switzerland—KOF Leading Index; at 10:30 PM: Canada—4th Quarter Current Account Balance, Canada—Manufacturing Prices, Canada—Raw Materials Price Index, U.S.—Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary);at 11:45 PM, the U.S. Chicago Fed National Association Business Barometer; at 12:30 AM, the U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index; and at 12:30 AM, remarks by Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed. With geopolitical risks persisting, we will be closely monitoring price fluctuations at the end of the month.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
