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Should We Be Wary of Sudden Moves at Month-End Amid Geopolitical Risks?

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Should We Be Wary of Sudden Moves at Month-End Amid Geopolitical Risks?

28.02.2022

Today's Highlights
  1. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank Purchasing Managers' Index
  2. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index

Last weekend, following reports that Russia and Ukraine were entering ceasefire negotiations, the USD/JPY pair surged during U.S. trading hours, rising from 115.15 to 115.75.However, the pair opened with a gap down of about 30 pips during today’s Asian session, and concerns about a decline in USD/JPY have not yet been dispelled. From a technical perspective, since USD/JPY is positioned just above the daily 20-day moving average (MA), it would be prudent to wait and see until the price breaks decisively above or below this level with a full-bodied candle.

Among European currencies, the euro has been trading weakly due to the deteriorating situation in Ukraine, and during today’s Asian trading session, it has become the weakest currency.The EUR/JPY pair opened with a significant gap down of about 200 pips, and as of now during Asian trading hours, the gap has yet to be filled. From a technical perspective, the EUR/JPY pair appears to be capped by the monthly downtrend line, so we will be watching closely to see if the gradual decline continues.

Today, at 16:00: Turkey’s Q4 GDP and trade balance;at 4:30 p.m., Swiss retail sales; at 5:00 p.m., the Swiss KOF Leading Index; at 10:30 p.m., Canada’s fourth-quarter current account balance, industrial product prices, and raw materials price index; U.S. wholesale inventories (flash estimate);at 11:45 PM, the U.S. Chicago Fed National Association Purchasing Managers’ Index; at 12:30 AM, the U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index; and at 12:30 AM, remarks by U.S. Atlanta Fed President Bostic are scheduled.We will be closely monitoring price fluctuations at the end of the month amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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