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Should We Focus on the Upside Potential for European Currencies Amid Geopolitical Risks?

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Should We Focus on the Upside Potential for European Currencies Amid Geopolitical Risks?

15.02.2022

Today's Highlights
  1. Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey
  2. Europe: Trade Balance

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, while the Dollar Index remained flat at 96.2, the euro fell against the dollar by about 80 pips, from 1.136 to 1.127.This move offset the gains seen immediately following the ECB’s policy rate decision earlier this month. With yesterday’s decline, the EUR/USD pair has returned to the 1.123–1.137 range, so it is important to note that price action may remain directionless for some time.

Among European currencies, the euro rose slightly during today’s Asian trading session, and the euro/pound pair—which had fallen yesterday—rebounded slightly today. It is currently trading around 0.836.However, since the euro/pound pair continues to decline, with its upside capped by the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart, we will first be watching closely to see if it can break above the 20-MA level of 0.836 with a solid candlestick body.

Today, at 16:00 European time, the UK unemployment rate and UK jobless claims will be released; at 19:00, the Eurozone/Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey, Eurozone Q4 GDP, and Eurozonetrade balance are scheduled for release during European trading hours; during U.S. trading hours, Canadian housing starts are scheduled for 22:15, the U.S. Producer Price Index and the U.S. New York Fed Manufacturing Index for 22:30, Canadian existing home sales for 23:00, and U.S. securities investment data for 6:00 the following day.Amid the escalating tensions in Ukraine, we will be watching to see if European currencies will rebound.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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