Be on the lookout for price fluctuations depending on whether Russia invades Ukraine
14.02.2022
- Switzerland – Producer Import Prices
- Brad (U.S.): Remarks by the St. Louis Fed
Last weekend, as expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes fueled by inflationary pressures took hold, the USD/JPY pair briefly touched 116.30. However, when reports emerged of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, the market shifted abruptly toward risk aversion, leading to widespread yen buying.The USD/JPY pair fell to 115.00. However, since the pair remains above the daily 20-day moving average, we need to carefully assess whether it will rebound or continue its decline.
European currencies are also trading weakly amid reports of a worsening situation in Ukraine, with the EUR/AUD pair falling to the exact midpoint of its weekly range of 1.529–1.642. However, as the EUR/AUD appears to be finding support at the 200-week SMA, we need to carefully assess whether it will enter a rebound phase following this decline.Meanwhile, the EUR/GBP pair continues its gradual decline on a weekly basis, currently trading at 0.837.
Today, the schedule includes Swiss producer and import prices at 16:30 CET, remarks by St. Louis Fed President Bullard at 22:30 CET, and remarks by ECB President Lagarde at 01:15 CET. While there are no major economic indicators scheduled for today, the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine has not been completely ruled out. Therefore, we will keep an eye on the currency strength at the start of the week while monitoring the headlines.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
