Should We Be Wary of Price Fluctuations Depending on Whether Russia Invades Ukraine?
14.02.2022
- Switzerland—Producer Import Prices
- Brad (U.S.): Remarks by the St. Louis Fed
Last weekend, as expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes due to inflationary pressures took hold, the USD/JPY pair briefly touched 116.30. However, when reports emerged of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, the market shifted abruptly toward risk aversion, leading to widespread yen buying.The USD/JPY pair fell to 115.00. However, since the pair remains above its 20-day moving average on the daily chart, we need to carefully assess whether it will rebound or continue its decline.
European currencies are also trading weakly amid reports of a worsening situation in Ukraine, and the EUR/AUD pair has fallen to the exact midpoint of its weekly trading range of 1.529–1.642.However, as the EUR/AUD pair appears to be finding support at the weekly 200-period SMA, we need to carefully assess whether it will enter a rebound phase following this decline. Meanwhile, the EUR/GBP pair continues its gradual decline on a weekly basis, with the current price at 0.837.
Today, the following events are scheduled: Swiss producer and import prices at 16:30 European time, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Braid at 22:30, and remarks by ECB President Lagarde at 25:15.Although there are no major economic indicators scheduled for release today, the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine has not been completely ruled out. Therefore, we will keep an eye on the headlines and monitor currency strength and weakness as the week begins.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
