Will the U.S. Dollar Continue to Rise as U.S. Treasury Yields Climb?

Will the U.S. Dollar Continue to Rise as U.S. Treasury Yields Climb?

11.10.2021

Last weekend, the three major U.S. stock indices all fell slightly, resulting in a market environment characterized by falling stock prices, rising interest rates, and higher crude oil prices.In the U.S. employment report released last Friday, nonfarm payrolls came in at 194,000, compared to a forecast of 500,000, marking the weakest growth in about nine months. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell further from the previous month’s 5.2% to 4.8%.

In the foreign exchange market, although the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has risen above 1.6%, the U.S. dollar’s rebound has been limited.While USD/JPY rebounded along the 4-hour 20-MA, EUR/USD has shown solid support on the downside and is currently trading around 1.157, testing whether it can firmly break above the 4-hour 20-MA with a real body.With the yen generally weak and yen crosses on the rise, USD/JPY is likely to continue its upward trend for the time being, albeit with some range-bound trading in between.

Today, Turkey’s employment statistics and current account balance are scheduled to be released at 4:00 p.m., and South Africa’s SACCI Business Confidence Index is set to be released at 6:30 p.m.; other than that, no major economic indicators are scheduled for release.This week, the U.S. FOMC minutes and Australian employment data are scheduled for Thursday, the 14th, while the Eurozone trade balance and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index are scheduled for Friday, the 15th. We will carefully monitor the situation to see if there are any notable price movements early next week (U.S. time).