Will the U.S. dollar continue to rise amid rising U.S. bond yields?

Will the U.S. dollar continue to rise amid rising U.S. bond yields?

11.10.2021

Last weekend, the three major U.S. stock indices all fell slightly, resulting in a market environment characterized by falling stock prices, rising interest rates, and higher oil prices. The U.S. employment report released last Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls came in at 194,000, compared to a forecast of 500,000, marking the weakest growth in about nine months. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell further from the previous month’s 5.2% to 4.8%.

In the foreign exchange market, although the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has risen above 1.6%, the U.S. dollar’s rebound has been limited.While USD/JPY has shown a rebound along the 4-hour 20-MA, EUR/USD has found solid support on the downside and is currently testing the 1.157 level, attempting to decisively break above the 4-hour 20-MA with a closing price. With the yen generally weak and cross-yen pairs rising, USD/JPY is likely to continue its upward trend for the time being, albeit with some range-bound trading.

Today, Turkey’s employment statistics and current account balance are scheduled for release at 4:00 PM, and South Africa’s SACCI Business Confidence Index is set for release at 6:30 PM; no other major economic indicators are scheduled for release.This week, the FOMC minutes and Australian employment data are scheduled for Thursday, the 14th, while the Eurozone trade balance and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index are set for Friday, the 15th. We will closely monitor the situation to see if there are any notable price movements early next week in U.S. trading hours.