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Euro Rebounds as Dollar Selling Resumes; Will U.S. CPI Change the Trend?

Market Report

Euro Rebounds as Dollar Selling Resumes; Will U.S. CPI Change the Trend?

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. October Consumer Price Index (CPI)
  2. U.S. October Consumer Price Index (Core CPI)

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the dollar fell against major currencies as a reaction to the dollar-buying that followed the release of the U.S. October employment report. The dollar-yen pair fell from around the previous day’s high of 158.53 yen to around 157.67 yen, closing at around 157.89 yen.Although the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to around 4.88%, risk-averse dollar buying subsided amid expectations of an easing in the Middle East situation and a rebound in U.S. stocks.Ahead of the U.S. CPI release on November 10, attention is focused on whether the market will focus on support in the mid-157 yen range or a rebound toward the 158 yen range.

European currencies strengthened against the U.S. dollar as the euro and the pound benefited from a trend of dollar selling. The euro rose from a low of around $1.1134 to around $1.1225, closing at around $1.1222.In European stock markets, the German DAX index rebounded 1.73% and the UK FTSE 100 index rose 1.02%, as investors took note of the easing of energy costs due to lower crude oil prices. The pound rose to the low 212-yen range against the yen, and the pound has remained firm even after the Bank of England’s rate hike.The focus will be on whether the euro/dollar pair can hold above the 1.12 level.

Today, at 9:01 a.m., the U.K. BRC October retail sales figures were released, showing a 1.1% year-over-year increase, and at 2:00 p.m., Japan’s Economic Watchers Survey was published.Upcoming economic indicators include the U.S. October Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for release at 10:30 p.m. The headline index is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, while the core index (excluding food and energy) is projected to increase by 0.2%.Since year-over-year figures will not be released this time, the month-over-month change is likely to influence the outlook for policy interest rates. With Germany’s revised CPI figures and remarks by ECB President Lagarde scheduled for the following day, the 11th, we will be closely monitoring developments in monetary policy in Europe and the U.S.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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