The dollar pulls back from its highs; all eyes are on whether the euro’s upward momentum will continue
04.11.2026
- Eurozone October Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)
- U.S. October ADP Employment Report
In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the dollar strengthened as the September JOLTS job openings figure came in at 7.523 million, exceeding the previous month’s 7.190 million.The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note also rose from 4.91% to 4.95%, and the dollar-yen pair traded within a range of 157.75 to 158.77 yen on the 3rd, closing near 158.69 yen.The USD/CAD pair rose within a range of 1.3949 to 1.4011 Canadian dollars and closed near 1.4009 Canadian dollars. While lower crude oil prices weighed on the Canadian dollar, the dollar fell back on the 4th following preliminary results from the U.S. midterm elections.
On the 3rd, the euro traded against the dollar in a range of $1.1175 to $1.1207 and closed near $1.1193.While the euro’s upside remained limited due to continued concerns over falling European stock prices and the situation in the Middle East, it rose to the mid-1.12 range on the 4th on dollar selling triggered by preliminary results from the U.S. midterm elections.The GBP/USD pair traded between 1.3395 and 1.3431 on the 3rd and closed near 1.3414. Ahead of the Bank of England’s interest rate announcement on the 5th, expectations of a rate hike could provide support for the pound. We will examine inflation in the eurozone and the UK’s policy outlook separately.
Today’s economic data showed that New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 5.7% at 6:45 a.m., while the number of employed persons fell by 0.1% from the previous period.During European trading hours, starting at 17:50, revised services PMI figures for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK will be released sequentially, followed by the Eurozone’s preliminary October HICP at 19:00.The headline index is expected to come in at 4.0% year-over-year, while the core index is forecast at 2.5%. In the U.S., the ADP employment report is scheduled for 22:15, followed by the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 24:00; we will be watching for the reaction of the dollar and European currencies.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
