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Dollar Hits Two-Month High; Attention Turns to Lagarde's Remarks

Market Report

Dollar Hits Two-Month High; Attention Turns to Lagarde's Remarks

Today's Highlights
  1. Remarks by ECB President Lagarde
  2. Minutes of the Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting

In the U.S. currency market on the previous business day, the U.S. dollar held steady amid expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to around 5.23% at one point; although it fell to around 5.16% toward the end of the session, it remains at a high level.U.S. core capital goods orders for August rose 1.6% month-over-month, exceeding market expectations and confirming the strength of corporate capital expenditures, particularly in AI-related investments. Meanwhile, the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September came in at 48.1, the lowest level in four months, reflecting a situation where economic strength coexists with weak consumer sentiment.

Among European currencies, against the backdrop of a strong dollar, the euro-dollar exchange rate is trading in the upper 1.13 range and the pound-dollar rate in the lower 1.32 range, with both remaining near their lows.At the start of the week, crude oil prices rose again, with Brent crude climbing to around $106, which is likely to heighten concerns in Europe about a resurgence of inflation driven by energy prices.The ECB raised interest rates this month and will continue to make monetary policy decisions while balancing price stability and economic growth. With the dollar remaining strong, it will be worth watching whether the euro can hold onto the $1.13 range.

ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak today before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. The focus of the euro exchange rate will be on her assessment of rising energy prices, the inflation outlook, and future monetary policy.Meanwhile, in Japan, the minutes from the Bank of Japan’s July meeting confirmed concerns about upside risks to inflation, and service prices for businesses accelerated to a year-over-year increase of 3.7%. Amid ongoing speculation about further interest rate hikes in Europe and the U.S., comments regarding central banks’ monetary policy outlook are likely to influence the direction of various currencies.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an investment advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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