As the yen continues to strengthen, the dollar-yen rate is in the 153-yen range; can the euro hold steady in the 1.16-dollar range?

As the yen continues to strengthen, the dollar-yen rate is in the 153-yen range; can the euro hold steady in the 1.16-dollar range?

08.09.2026 New

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the U.S. dollar fell sharply against the yen. U.S. nonfarm payrolls for August, released last weekend, rose by 162,000—significantly exceeding market expectations of a 56,000 increase—while the unemployment rate remained flat at 4.1%.Although this pushed the probability of a U.S. interest rate hike in September up to about 60%, yen buying dominated at the start of the week amid speculation that the Bank of Japan would raise rates further. The dollar-yen pair fell from a high of 156.28 yen to 154.06 yen, closing around 154.36 yen.Today, driven by factors such as an upward revision to Japan’s GDP and an increase in real wages, the pair extended its decline to 152.89 yen before rebounding to the 153.30-yen range. We will be watching to see whether the pair can recover to around 154 yen or if it will fall below 153 yen again.

Among European currencies, the euro held steady against the dollar. The Eurozone’s September Sentix Investor Confidence Index rose to 5.1 from 0.9 the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 2.0.In addition, the eurozone’s April–June GDP was revised upward to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.2% year-on-year, easing excessive concerns about the European economy.On the other hand, concerns about inflation driven by high oil prices have fueled speculation about further interest rate hikes by the ECB. The euro traded between $1.1607 and $1.1636, having opened at $1.1607 the previous day, and closed around $1.1623.Today, the pair remains near $1.1625 without a clear directional bias; we will be watching to see whether the $1.1600 level acts as support or if the pair breaks above the previous day’s high.

Today’s key economic indicators include Germany’s July trade balance at 15:00, France’s July trade balance and current account balance at 15:45, South Africa’s April–June GDP at 18:00, and U.S. July consumer credit at 28:00.Market consensus forecasts South Africa’s GDP to come in at -0.1% quarter-over-quarter and 1.2% year-over-year, while U.S. consumer credit balances are expected to rise by $11.65 billion. As U.S. markets reopen after a holiday, we will be watching to see whether the yen-driven decline in the U.S. dollar continues or whether the euro maintains its firm footing in the $1.16 range.